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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 70.587, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.102, "architecture_energy": 80.805, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.002, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.21, "rotation_up": 77.45, "upward_expansion": 90.21, "deceleration": 46.71, "rotation_down": 10.13, "downward_expansion": 16.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.118, 36.843091, 33.329287, 31.078532 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 42.74, "trend_reference": 28.947553, "distance_from_trend": 0.476463, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.687846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.122163, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 31.720417, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.425346, "excess_performance": 0.299721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.476463, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118109, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.122163, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.361385, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.317204, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.548471, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.425346, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.074326, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8835659, "relative_activity": 0.730244, "balance": 2.074326, "dry_up": 1.101452, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106837, "annualized_volatility": 0.706959, "from_high_reference": -0.032594, "from_low_reference": 1.000153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.947553, "fair_value_reference": 48.687846, "structural_low": 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28.104035 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.8, "volume": 13783802, "typical_volume": 12725227.9, "trend": 27.762984, "fair_value": 49.194215, "relative_strength": 33.566999, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.048832, "energy": 83.621395, "activity_lines": [ 35.743333, 33.660342, 30.522372, 29.042182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.29, "volume": 14993303, "typical_volume": 12660438.55, "trend": 28.056935, "fair_value": 49.008161, "relative_strength": 13.971315, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.864271, "energy": 66.505067, "activity_lines": [ 36.038, 34.310909, 31.202154, 29.527796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.8, "volume": 15695746, "typical_volume": 12613635.6, "trend": 28.446649, "fair_value": 48.835156, "relative_strength": 20.881229, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.838231, "energy": 65.084111, "activity_lines": [ 36.922667, 35.223273, 32.068347, 30.156381 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.74, "volume": 8835659, "typical_volume": 12099603.35, "trend": 28.947553, "fair_value": 48.687846, "relative_strength": 31.720417, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.101972, "energy": 80.805038, "activity_lines": [ 39.118, 36.843091, 33.329287, 31.078532 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }