{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81bab1f3-ea99-4cbe-aa55-1f45f790254a", "symbol": "COST", "name": "Costco Wholesale Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 69.604, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.063, "architecture_energy": 33.071, "architecture_maturity": 19.002, "architecture_confidence": 87.026, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.81, "rotation_up": 21.53, "upward_expansion": 4.15, "deceleration": 56.37, "rotation_down": 45.28, "downward_expansion": 75.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.044238, 42.148867, 43.052048, 43.52487 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.25, "trend_reference": 43.941603, "distance_from_trend": -0.038497, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.530838, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068786, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.655805, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060788, "excess_performance": -0.181209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038497, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016244, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068786, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120938, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126558, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046425, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060788, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.631251, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 325700, "relative_activity": 0.891437, "balance": 0.631251, "dry_up": 1.082479, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04609, "annualized_volatility": 0.17254, "from_high_reference": -0.137755, "from_low_reference": 0.10971 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.941603, "fair_value_reference": 39.530838, "structural_low": 40.486243, 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43.482146, 44.256319, 44.565816, 44.267998 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 42.473114, "volume": 44400, "typical_volume": 343540.0, "trend": 43.492541, "fair_value": 38.880785, "relative_strength": -11.871464, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.851977, "energy": 41.10526, "activity_lines": [ 43.032355, 43.860859, 44.350641, 44.204958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 42.383255, "volume": 22000, "typical_volume": 326615.0, "trend": 43.560429, "fair_value": 38.999627, "relative_strength": -12.180959, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.079695, "energy": 46.580509, "activity_lines": [ 42.788403, 43.490911, 44.138867, 44.133391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.865646, "volume": 740800, "typical_volume": 352230.0, "trend": 43.594682, "fair_value": 39.102644, "relative_strength": -14.900512, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.485208, "energy": 61.823664, "activity_lines": [ 42.067698, 42.896868, 43.798559, 43.959534 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.933964, "volume": 477100, "typical_volume": 359920.0, "trend": 43.707426, "fair_value": 39.209061, "relative_strength": -12.089236, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.152749, "energy": 52.485247, "activity_lines": [ 41.875389, 42.577508, 43.576471, 43.852391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.68, "volume": 272500, "typical_volume": 351415.0, "trend": 43.789101, "fair_value": 39.312372, "relative_strength": -12.425491, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.620396, "energy": 58.436351, "activity_lines": [ 41.731495, 42.270627, 43.346197, 43.721589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.41, "volume": 506700, "typical_volume": 362190.0, "trend": 43.920039, "fair_value": 39.423688, "relative_strength": -10.021853, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.826663, "energy": 47.010015, "activity_lines": [ 41.912429, 42.191565, 43.200089, 43.632615 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.25, "volume": 325700, "typical_volume": 365365.0, "trend": 43.941603, "fair_value": 39.530838, "relative_strength": -12.655805, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.06303, "energy": 33.071429, "activity_lines": [ 42.044238, 42.148867, 43.052048, 43.52487 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }