{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81be4f0a-5fec-4ead-8438-0cc1104df529", "symbol": "MOMENT", "name": "Moment Group AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.749, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.813, "architecture_energy": 53.786, "architecture_maturity": 15.447, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.96, "rotation_up": 17.22, "upward_expansion": 11.87, "deceleration": 39.37, "rotation_down": 56.52, "downward_expansion": 85.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.486667, 5.584, 5.805714, 5.979871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.54, "trend_reference": 6.108667, "distance_from_trend": -0.093092, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.820558, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.371922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.791494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.134375, "excess_performance": -0.195869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093092, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014616, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.371922, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019901, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197915, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004612, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.299222, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43016, "relative_activity": 0.691688, "balance": 0.299222, "dry_up": 0.55048, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098861, "annualized_volatility": 0.63215, "from_high_reference": -0.438134, "from_low_reference": 0.214912 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.108667, "fair_value_reference": 8.820558, "structural_low": 5.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.011223, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.012939, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.334783, "worst_return": -0.228659, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.082645, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.089745, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.438155, "worst_return": -0.310694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.068326, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.13591, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.267738, "worst_return": -0.287751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063877, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131265, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038997, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.075145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023881, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.224599, 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"typical_volume": 64279.95, "trend": 6.097333, "fair_value": 8.950686, "relative_strength": -16.557317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.72292, "energy": 30.894015, "activity_lines": [ 5.72, 5.769455, 5.998286, 6.111914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.38, "volume": 14861, "typical_volume": 62288.3, "trend": 6.119333, "fair_value": 8.905173, "relative_strength": -21.105926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.1137, "energy": 52.6309, "activity_lines": [ 5.605333, 5.686909, 5.923143, 6.065634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.36, "volume": 60571, "typical_volume": 61865.3, "trend": 6.11, "fair_value": 8.861968, "relative_strength": -21.64638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.292459, "energy": 58.899845, "activity_lines": [ 5.502667, 5.613818, 5.853143, 6.016645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.54, "volume": 43016, "typical_volume": 62189.85, "trend": 6.108667, "fair_value": 8.820558, "relative_strength": -19.791494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.812976, "energy": 53.785677, "activity_lines": [ 5.486667, 5.584, 5.805714, 5.979871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }