{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81bfdfa7-8448-4de0-8f58-87f4d9552db8", "symbol": "FICO1", "name": "Fair Isaac Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.173, "architecture_energy": 40.107, "architecture_maturity": 22.647, "architecture_confidence": 67.413, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.33, "rotation_up": 12.68, "upward_expansion": 17.74, "deceleration": 55.67, "rotation_down": 64.12, "downward_expansion": 60.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 19973.031771, 20532.206286, 20362.228804, 20478.294187 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17880.0, "trend_reference": 21492.300391, "distance_from_trend": -0.168074, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27761.312638, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.355938, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.561197, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.334604, "excess_performance": -0.279937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168074, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139518, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.355938, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059619, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.315612, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080638, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.334604, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.11546, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 193, "relative_activity": 0.492347, "balance": 0.11546, "dry_up": 1.288265, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066384, "annualized_volatility": 0.653418, "from_high_reference": -0.485364, "from_low_reference": 0.1175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21492.300391, "fair_value_reference": 27761.312638, "structural_low": 16000.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.045, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.025157, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.055165, "worst_return": -0.187758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005578, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.072609, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.014323, "worst_return": -0.39436, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.244498, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.236948, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.212292, "worst_return": -0.316484, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005339, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.145782, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076238, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", 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152, "typical_volume": 309.6, "trend": 22969.186458, "fair_value": 27585.829502, "relative_strength": -17.251339, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.671519, "energy": 10.434635, "activity_lines": [ 21186.588151, 21219.178693, 20247.001618, 21033.841969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21970.0, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 311.85, "trend": 22649.519792, "fair_value": 27640.28463, "relative_strength": -17.59299, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.439884, "energy": 13.499201, "activity_lines": [ 21485.308073, 21407.92049, 20413.90066, 20969.378327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21655.0, "volume": 71, "typical_volume": 310.95, "trend": 22326.664779, "fair_value": 27692.720528, "relative_strength": -17.784583, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.914068, "energy": 22.179677, "activity_lines": [ 21665.420703, 21487.38956, 20561.697321, 20905.215759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19770.369141, "volume": 1696, "typical_volume": 391.95, "trend": 21940.988737, "fair_value": 27733.075458, "relative_strength": -24.960893, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.467525, "energy": 20.001194, "activity_lines": [ 21098.989714, 21165.016655, 20550.600567, 20740.29346 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17880.0, "volume": 193, "typical_volume": 392.0, "trend": 21492.300391, "fair_value": 27761.312638, "relative_strength": -31.561197, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.172607, "energy": 40.106825, "activity_lines": [ 19973.031771, 20532.206286, 20362.228804, 20478.294187 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }