{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81c02a3d-5cab-443e-a000-fef0c646c22d", "symbol": "2881", "name": "Fubon Financial Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.03, "architecture_energy": 54.765, "architecture_maturity": 76.124, "architecture_confidence": 63.397, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.19, "rotation_up": 50.0, "upward_expansion": 80.4, "deceleration": 70.89, "rotation_down": 26.72, "downward_expansion": 9.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 128.333333, 127.23173, 118.94975, 111.162041 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 129.5, "trend_reference": 102.504985, "distance_from_trend": 0.263353, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 77.303415, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.675217, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.068701, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.449072, "excess_performance": 0.0077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.263353, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130005, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.675217, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.369578, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020687, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241647, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.449072, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.502436, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47783801, "relative_activity": 0.294437, "balance": 2.502436, "dry_up": 0.570621, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076964, "annualized_volatility": 0.334722, "from_high_reference": -0.050396, "from_low_reference": 0.635775 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 102.504985, "fair_value_reference": 77.303415, "structural_low": 80.75965, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.008824, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.004417, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.195059, "worst_return": -0.061667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.053539, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.019498, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.248919, "worst_return": -0.084711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.089084, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.050342, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.250279, "worst_return": -0.222619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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123.68354, 112.191822, 105.600294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 130.0, "volume": 122999631, "typical_volume": 164536869.6, "trend": 100.115931, "fair_value": 76.31983, "relative_strength": 3.706142, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.751295, "energy": 59.98714, "activity_lines": [ 126.9, 125.664162, 114.763338, 107.606113 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 127.0, "volume": 96698063, "typical_volume": 163756154.05, "trend": 101.26718, "fair_value": 76.802088, "relative_strength": -0.860493, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.046663, "energy": 54.221299, "activity_lines": [ 127.4, 126.408037, 116.835848, 109.340569 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 129.5, "volume": 47783801, "typical_volume": 162288462.75, "trend": 102.504985, "fair_value": 77.303415, "relative_strength": -2.068701, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.029614, "energy": 54.764931, "activity_lines": [ 128.333333, 127.23173, 118.94975, 111.162041 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }