{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81d3b4d8-aca6-4d48-afa1-784d0952ceac", "symbol": "AU", "name": "AngloGold Ashanti plc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.375, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.602, "architecture_energy": 21.216, "architecture_maturity": 25.992, "architecture_confidence": 60.832, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.61, "rotation_up": 24.45, "upward_expansion": 16.01, "deceleration": 59.05, "rotation_down": 43.1, "downward_expansion": 68.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.867333, 84.044, 87.460988, 90.4463 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 96.22, "trend_reference": 94.219201, "distance_from_trend": 0.021236, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.261587, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.125864, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.951336, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.046197, "excess_performance": -0.171822, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021236, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012051, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.125864, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.533909, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019513, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.26723, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.046197, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.809532, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16139097, "relative_activity": 1.160611, "balance": 0.809532, "dry_up": 0.973588, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114112, "annualized_volatility": 0.728286, "from_high_reference": -0.232245, "from_low_reference": 0.95329 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 94.219201, "fair_value_reference": 45.261587, "structural_low": 73.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.034069, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.035252, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.276334, "worst_return": -0.168291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.074845, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.006592, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.456809, "worst_return": -0.178306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.171718, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.070635, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.009497, "worst_return": -0.016312, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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-14.008832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.55797, "energy": 62.265243, "activity_lines": [ 81.350667, 84.164408, 89.141683, 92.209172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 79.67, "volume": 10650559, "typical_volume": 14303139.5, "trend": 94.121138, "fair_value": 44.352482, "relative_strength": -10.686809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.963524, "energy": 57.317821, "activity_lines": [ 80.174, 82.94122, 87.96892, 91.257732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.32, "volume": 16124262, "typical_volume": 14403168.95, "trend": 93.996063, "fair_value": 44.748913, "relative_strength": -12.477444, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.577007, "energy": 53.5327, "activity_lines": [ 79.627333, 81.863091, 86.875795, 90.30282 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 96.22, "volume": 16139097, "typical_volume": 13905689.9, "trend": 94.219201, "fair_value": 45.261587, "relative_strength": 1.951336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.602175, "energy": 21.215847, "activity_lines": [ 84.867333, 84.044, 87.460988, 90.4463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }