{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81d4b3e3-554a-41d2-9c4b-b8577a60bec5", "symbol": "WTID", "name": "WisdomTree Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil ETC", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.258, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.554, "architecture_energy": 21.855, "architecture_maturity": 32.187, "architecture_confidence": 54.435, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.92, "rotation_up": 48.83, "upward_expansion": 64.06, "deceleration": 66.06, "rotation_down": 19.07, "downward_expansion": 14.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.974334, 33.090928, 33.873019, 32.970254 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.247002, "trend_reference": 30.575233, "distance_from_trend": 0.054677, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.647576, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.363649, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.057607, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.459404, "excess_performance": 0.279511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054677, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168175, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.363649, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.328271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060576, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.422455, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.459404, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.482543, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33947, "relative_activity": 0.617439, "balance": 0.482543, "dry_up": 0.6602, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122132, "annualized_volatility": 0.680885, "from_high_reference": -0.211372, "from_low_reference": 0.743081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.575233, "fair_value_reference": 23.647576, "structural_low": 20.645, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.037781, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.016811, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.175547, "worst_return": -0.088815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.020398, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.034147, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.709928, "worst_return": -0.175467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019476, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.109125, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.525609, "worst_return": -0.173826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100836, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.183148, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073654, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.140677, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045856, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"volume": 2118, "typical_volume": 65885.5, "trend": 29.015133, "fair_value": 23.37482, "relative_strength": 15.237102, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.241795, "energy": 18.609784, "activity_lines": [ 31.128067, 32.529618, 33.591166, 31.95852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.777, "volume": 68949, "typical_volume": 67875.15, "trend": 29.6063, "fair_value": 23.484288, "relative_strength": 26.345596, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.861336, "energy": 16.182744, "activity_lines": [ 32.975933, 33.070491, 33.930509, 32.459286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.416, "volume": 40178, "typical_volume": 62662.8, "trend": 30.1367, "fair_value": 23.578076, "relative_strength": 20.131456, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.438737, "energy": 23.881128, "activity_lines": [ 34.141, 33.336254, 34.072557, 32.834105 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.247002, "volume": 33947, "typical_volume": 54980.3, "trend": 30.575233, "fair_value": 23.647576, "relative_strength": 6.057607, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.553939, "energy": 21.855284, "activity_lines": [ 33.974334, 33.090928, 33.873019, 32.970254 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }