{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81d66b4c-c2f5-4aae-bcb5-55d8ca78d1ce", "symbol": "HAS", "name": "Hasbro Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.936, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.244, "architecture_energy": 24.317, "architecture_maturity": 31.361, "architecture_confidence": 68.857, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.78, "rotation_up": 60.66, "upward_expansion": 33.97, "deceleration": 38.18, "rotation_down": 17.59, "downward_expansion": 25.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 90.119333, 86.979273, 87.494161, 88.778261 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 93.52, "trend_reference": 90.083469, "distance_from_trend": 0.038148, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.981298, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.417371, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.510692, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.011743, "excess_performance": -0.175711, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038148, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021027, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.417371, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112948, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039954, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011743, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.790271, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8109192, "relative_activity": 0.822537, "balance": 0.790271, "dry_up": 1.236634, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061579, "annualized_volatility": 0.285233, "from_high_reference": -0.112526, "from_low_reference": 0.378574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.083469, "fair_value_reference": 65.981298, "structural_low": 75.19, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.010911, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.013584, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.105868, "worst_return": -0.059193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.150109, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.096974, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.237199, "worst_return": -0.075164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.28486, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.159514, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.401899, "worst_return": 0.063663, "sufficient": false }, { 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65.140765, "relative_strength": -18.952168, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.110217, "energy": 67.863449, "activity_lines": [ 81.651333, 83.654675, 87.235674, 88.759449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 81.55, "volume": 8449921, "typical_volume": 9035058.1, "trend": 89.15754, "fair_value": 65.302717, "relative_strength": -12.442915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.264153, "energy": 62.70816, "activity_lines": [ 81.296, 82.817178, 86.476204, 88.270356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 88.79, "volume": 20577198, "typical_volume": 9698311.85, "trend": 89.406422, "fair_value": 65.518188, "relative_strength": -3.139758, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.050331, "energy": 38.149794, "activity_lines": [ 83.510667, 83.576626, 86.488292, 88.246644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 93.94, "volume": 11630404, "typical_volume": 9888713.25, "trend": 89.81351, "fair_value": 65.756848, "relative_strength": 1.83511, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.764228, "energy": 11.365113, "activity_lines": [ 87.172, 85.375759, 87.014328, 88.539133 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.52, "volume": 8109192, "typical_volume": 9858760.85, "trend": 90.083469, "fair_value": 65.981298, "relative_strength": -3.510692, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.244433, "energy": 24.317395, "activity_lines": [ 90.119333, 86.979273, 87.494161, 88.778261 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }