{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81dc46b2-32d1-4f74-9952-87958047f7ed", "symbol": "ALFO", "name": "ALFONSINO", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 22.167, "architecture_energy": 27.477, "architecture_maturity": 30.059, "architecture_confidence": 51.357, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.7, "rotation_up": 43.83, "upward_expansion": 31.94, "deceleration": 48.35, "rotation_down": 19.79, "downward_expansion": 47.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.189333, 0.182418, 0.179195, 0.182148 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.22, "trend_reference": 0.1898, "distance_from_trend": 0.159115, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.386897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.431374, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.54659, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028037, "excess_performance": -0.142854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.159115, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082501, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.431374, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173236, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125466, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.246732, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028037, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.390756, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 471000, "relative_activity": 4.952681, "balance": 4.390756, "dry_up": 2.45531, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061189, "annualized_volatility": 0.435347, "from_high_reference": -0.208633, "from_low_reference": 0.447368 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1898, "fair_value_reference": 0.386897, "structural_low": 0.152, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-07-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.270701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.38209, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.492958, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.718, "volume": 23000, "typical_volume": 301350.0, "trend": 0.786633, "fair_value": 1.021599, "relative_strength": -8.283208, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.148828, "energy": 12.311428, "activity_lines": [ 0.7336, 0.734473, 0.704829, 0.724024 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 0.716, "volume": 62000, "typical_volume": 272150.0, "trend": 0.770833, "fair_value": 1.018277, "relative_strength": -9.351646, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.513657, "energy": 11.789309, "activity_lines": [ 0.7268, 0.733782, 0.707057, 0.719467 ] }, { "date": 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.175, "volume": 364000, "typical_volume": 79400.0, "trend": 0.193767, "fair_value": 0.397635, "relative_strength": -30.395045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.873555, "energy": 27.648946, "activity_lines": [ 0.174467, 0.174073, 0.176143, 0.18271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.167, "volume": 29000, "typical_volume": 75650.0, "trend": 0.1918, "fair_value": 0.393833, "relative_strength": -32.609536, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.65606, "energy": 42.161448, "activity_lines": [ 0.172, 0.172727, 0.174986, 0.180983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.18, "volume": 70000, "typical_volume": 73400.0, "trend": 0.190133, "fair_value": 0.390141, "relative_strength": -26.97467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.603188, "energy": 27.339194, "activity_lines": [ 0.174067, 0.173982, 0.175167, 0.180222 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.22, "volume": 471000, "typical_volume": 95100.0, "trend": 0.1898, "fair_value": 0.386897, "relative_strength": -12.54659, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 22.166932, "energy": 27.477477, "activity_lines": [ 0.189333, 0.182418, 0.179195, 0.182148 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }