{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81de964d-6d37-4aec-8609-17b42ea03f0b", "symbol": "SEN", "name": "Sea Limited", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.102, "architecture_energy": 50.91, "architecture_maturity": 21.215, "architecture_confidence": 60.006, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.08, "rotation_up": 69.39, "upward_expansion": 57.61, "deceleration": 29.7, "rotation_down": 18.98, "downward_expansion": 15.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 1867.789323, 1804.30799, 1691.421897, 1663.043564 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1930.0, "trend_reference": 1692.710331, "distance_from_trend": 0.140183, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1834.62295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051987, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.735639, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.034853, "excess_performance": 0.089519, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.140183, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120548, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051987, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.210455, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157356, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.318344, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034853, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.221503, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1253, "relative_activity": 0.850126, "balance": 3.221503, "dry_up": 0.558383, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073275, "annualized_volatility": 0.463188, "from_high_reference": -0.478378, "from_low_reference": 0.388489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1692.710331, "fair_value_reference": 1834.62295, "structural_low": 1390.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.078247, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.05877, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.129445, "worst_return": -0.03486, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.205768, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.185486, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.371228, "worst_return": 0.040309, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.352301, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.368673, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.954023, "worst_return": -0.249421, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048791, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030769, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.229911, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113049, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.211092, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": 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1634.534835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1810.0, "volume": 1131, "typical_volume": 3141.75, "trend": 1742.395667, "fair_value": 1818.49654, "relative_strength": -23.476019, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.146988, "energy": 57.95028, "activity_lines": [ 1808.522656, 1697.270721, 1611.359233, 1638.141567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1791.709961, "volume": 589, "typical_volume": 1609.85, "trend": 1727.285999, "fair_value": 1823.392181, "relative_strength": -22.9501, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.825093, "energy": 60.844768, "activity_lines": [ 1822.478646, 1726.795987, 1632.990944, 1641.323134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1843.0, "volume": 319, "typical_volume": 1458.4, "trend": 1709.047335, "fair_value": 1828.481925, "relative_strength": -20.400659, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.372166, "energy": 64.579161, "activity_lines": [ 1839.150651, 1760.815625, 1658.823087, 1648.788553 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1930.0, "volume": 1253, "typical_volume": 1473.9, "trend": 1692.710331, "fair_value": 1834.62295, "relative_strength": -15.735639, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.102034, "energy": 50.910445, "activity_lines": [ 1867.789323, 1804.30799, 1691.421897, 1663.043564 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }