{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81df4e67-d9f7-4264-a15e-25696642c71f", "symbol": "002307", "name": "Xinjiang Beixin Road & Bridge Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.378, "architecture_energy": 66.379, "architecture_maturity": 82.028, "architecture_confidence": 94.307, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 26.6, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.89, "rotation_down": 58.51, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.969333, 3.059273, 3.451714, 3.789097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.03, "trend_reference": 4.219, "distance_from_trend": -0.28182, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.131597, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.266627, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.934024, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.39521, "excess_performance": -0.402609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.28182, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138511, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.266627, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.303422, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.35934, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132536, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.39521, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.786168, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 141652644, "relative_activity": 1.241102, "balance": 0.786168, "dry_up": 1.068179, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088093, "annualized_volatility": 0.359064, "from_high_reference": -0.499174, "from_low_reference": 0.089928 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.219, "fair_value_reference": 4.131597, "structural_low": 2.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.006674, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.024514, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.175, "worst_return": -0.219178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.045512, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.021135, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.285227, "worst_return": -0.355856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.047188, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024725, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.669767, "worst_return": -0.32783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3.017333, 3.303636, 3.741476, 4.058043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.86, "volume": 108539110, "typical_volume": 120621507.1, "trend": 4.356667, "fair_value": 4.156883, "relative_strength": -38.301911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.120715, "energy": 91.275948, "activity_lines": [ 2.926, 3.179455, 3.623095, 3.955742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.03, "volume": 110426830, "typical_volume": 116881445.25, "trend": 4.286333, "fair_value": 4.144431, "relative_strength": -33.093846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.277159, "energy": 79.135447, "activity_lines": [ 2.944, 3.109273, 3.532238, 3.870151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.03, "volume": 141652644, "typical_volume": 114134531.5, "trend": 4.219, "fair_value": 4.131597, "relative_strength": -35.934024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.378363, "energy": 66.379413, "activity_lines": [ 2.969333, 3.059273, 3.451714, 3.789097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }