{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81e08069-3afa-4b9f-8988-15e8222efb49", "symbol": "ESPA3", "name": "MPM Corp\u00f3reos S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.844, "architecture_energy": 29.903, "architecture_maturity": 83.043, "architecture_confidence": 77.909, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.55, "rotation_up": 27.38, "upward_expansion": 20.7, "deceleration": 46.02, "rotation_down": 29.45, "downward_expansion": 57.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.82, 7.670909, 8.055053, 8.72838 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.0, "trend_reference": 9.303273, "distance_from_trend": -0.247577, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.924345, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.294664, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.286844, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.204069, "excess_performance": -0.147021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.247577, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089782, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.294664, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163678, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.322868, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063258, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204069, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.383703, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 387400, "relative_activity": 1.001528, "balance": 0.383703, "dry_up": 0.646895, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144505, "annualized_volatility": 0.642587, "from_high_reference": -0.46957, "from_low_reference": 0.241135 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.303273, "fair_value_reference": 9.924345, "structural_low": 5.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.025699, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.042188, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.284404, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.009804, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.013825, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.380952, "worst_return": -0.462849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.067048, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.127295, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.214876, "worst_return": -0.539041, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 7.334, 7.451091, 8.571617, 9.119069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.49, "volume": 314000, "typical_volume": 448177.5, "trend": 9.508421, "fair_value": 10.056156, "relative_strength": -20.821174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.093546, "energy": 34.848779, "activity_lines": [ 7.781333, 7.592182, 8.471275, 9.051114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.31, "volume": 169600, "typical_volume": 444080.0, "trend": 9.467541, "fair_value": 10.015758, "relative_strength": -21.947442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.921616, "energy": 25.256765, "activity_lines": [ 8.089333, 7.713455, 8.364283, 8.973797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.06, "volume": 129900, "typical_volume": 400861.5, "trend": 9.396411, "fair_value": 9.970059, "relative_strength": -25.247935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.161775, "energy": 26.78319, "activity_lines": [ 8.166667, 7.785455, 8.249115, 8.882987 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.0, "volume": 387400, "typical_volume": 386809.0, "trend": 9.303273, "fair_value": 9.924345, "relative_strength": -32.286844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.844182, "energy": 29.902929, "activity_lines": [ 7.82, 7.670909, 8.055053, 8.72838 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }