{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81e2bf22-e577-49d1-a27e-2eedf3b040cf", "symbol": "DSD", "name": "Amundi ShortDAX Daily (-2x) Inverse UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.787, "architecture_energy": 71.717, "architecture_maturity": 31.283, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 18.77, "upward_expansion": 14.88, "deceleration": 39.19, "rotation_down": 64.25, "downward_expansion": 88.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.478753, 0.487553, 0.501747, 0.515912 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.4521, "trend_reference": 0.52633, "distance_from_trend": -0.141033, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.77491, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.416577, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.449935, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138036, "excess_performance": -0.191348, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141033, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033329, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.416577, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057891, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214499, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164272, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138036, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.229197, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2724483, "relative_activity": 1.138585, "balance": 0.229197, "dry_up": 0.612566, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05785, "annualized_volatility": 0.376794, "from_high_reference": -0.318819, "from_low_reference": 0.00556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.52633, "fair_value_reference": 0.77491, "structural_low": 0.4496, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.008767, "positive_rate": 0.435897, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": 0.00877, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.136386, "worst_return": -0.20373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.052788, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.045186, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.113185, "worst_return": -0.257215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.103371, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.133414, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.342282, "worst_return": -0.2894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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0.51828, 0.526277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4981, "volume": 1046032, "typical_volume": 2630314.9, "trend": 0.529773, "fair_value": 0.783913, "relative_strength": -10.896429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.923973, "energy": 51.35273, "activity_lines": [ 0.49824, 0.500527, 0.514466, 0.524148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.478, "volume": 1858013, "typical_volume": 2526192.7, "trend": 0.527987, "fair_value": 0.779558, "relative_strength": -15.387813, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.372019, "energy": 47.13072, "activity_lines": [ 0.49158, 0.496145, 0.509097, 0.520808 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4521, "volume": 2724483, "typical_volume": 2392867.45, "trend": 0.52633, "fair_value": 0.77491, "relative_strength": -21.449935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.786764, "energy": 71.717495, "activity_lines": [ 0.478753, 0.487553, 0.501747, 0.515912 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }