{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81ec1c81-5882-4793-9076-ba4369f5e3f5", "symbol": "MRD", "name": "Mount Ridley Mines Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.647, "architecture_energy": 20.368, "architecture_maturity": 72.981, "architecture_confidence": 77.633, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.21, "rotation_up": 28.87, "upward_expansion": 16.72, "deceleration": 44.02, "rotation_down": 28.78, "downward_expansion": 62.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.024733, 0.024073, 0.025514, 0.026486 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.025, "trend_reference": 0.028033, "distance_from_trend": -0.108205, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.015333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.630435, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.908714, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.137931, "excess_performance": -0.201637, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108205, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110053, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.630435, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280845, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019087, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.592822, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137931, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.872859, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10201648, "relative_activity": 1.285058, "balance": 0.872859, "dry_up": 1.297065, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135385, "annualized_volatility": 0.668182, "from_high_reference": -0.712644, "from_low_reference": 11.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.028033, "fair_value_reference": 0.015333, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.290323, "directional_follow_through": 0.322581, "median_excess_return": -0.01872, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.090909, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.044682, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.253757, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 10.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"2023-03-17", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.166333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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"fair_value": 0.01525, "relative_strength": 2.004142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.426433, "energy": 76.927938, "activity_lines": [ 0.022867, 0.024327, 0.026519, 0.027553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.021, "volume": 12136496, "typical_volume": 8001724.0, "trend": 0.0287, "fair_value": 0.015224, "relative_strength": -8.216157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.784525, "energy": 79.427296, "activity_lines": [ 0.022067, 0.023491, 0.02591, 0.027034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.027, "volume": 10940082, "typical_volume": 7815287.5, "trend": 0.028533, "fair_value": 0.015269, "relative_strength": 15.944774, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.438293, "energy": 41.299954, "activity_lines": [ 0.023533, 0.023891, 0.025905, 0.026925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.025, "volume": 7909659, "typical_volume": 7759441.45, "trend": 0.028267, "fair_value": 0.015301, "relative_strength": 3.004755, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.049635, "energy": 28.00679, "activity_lines": [ 0.024267, 0.023945, 0.025705, 0.026697 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.025, "volume": 10201648, "typical_volume": 7938667.85, "trend": 0.028033, "fair_value": 0.015333, "relative_strength": -1.908714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.646644, "energy": 20.36787, "activity_lines": [ 0.024733, 0.024073, 0.025514, 0.026486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }