{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81ecc11b-64a3-49a7-b36b-199b084297e7", "symbol": "8031", "name": "ETS Group Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-28", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.495, "architecture_energy": 67.952, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.822, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.61, "rotation_up": 11.95, "upward_expansion": 14.23, "deceleration": 38.27, "rotation_down": 74.49, "downward_expansion": 92.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.299667, 0.318909, 0.350262, 0.367312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.285, "trend_reference": 0.396167, "distance_from_trend": -0.280606, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.263152, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.083022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.05863, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.380435, "excess_performance": -0.341166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.280606, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007374, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.083022, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15797, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120586, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.344783, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.380435, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.563971, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 458000, "relative_activity": 1.045185, "balance": 0.563971, "dry_up": 0.547695, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.210526, "annualized_volatility": 1.066415, "from_high_reference": -0.62987, "from_low_reference": 1.478261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.396167, "fair_value_reference": 0.263152, "structural_low": 0.275, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.006031, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 1.216748, "worst_return": -0.395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.087497, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.024462, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 1.5, "worst_return": -0.324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.42402, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.305255, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.074691, "worst_return": -0.448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.194737, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052288, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.255708, "active": 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0.380455, 0.391143, 0.405462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.41, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1373100.0, "trend": 0.413, "fair_value": 0.265093, "relative_strength": 40.984729, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.982591, "energy": 50.634497, "activity_lines": [ 0.361667, 0.383909, 0.392119, 0.405559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.34, "volume": 64000, "typical_volume": 1310000.0, "trend": 0.415333, "fair_value": 0.265098, "relative_strength": 13.684871, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.872026, "energy": 56.356227, "activity_lines": [ 0.353, 0.374455, 0.386667, 0.400849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.345, "volume": 330000, "typical_volume": 1274600.0, "trend": 0.415167, "fair_value": 0.264984, "relative_strength": 9.907664, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.536168, "energy": 42.044864, "activity_lines": [ 0.353, 0.367182, 0.381857, 0.396312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.325, "volume": 84000, "typical_volume": 1239900.0, "trend": 0.416667, "fair_value": 0.264742, "relative_strength": 3.134363, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.247015, "energy": 34.490829, "activity_lines": [ 0.345, 0.356727, 0.375262, 0.390495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 0.305, "volume": 200000, "typical_volume": 1237100.0, "trend": 0.416, "fair_value": 0.264371, "relative_strength": -2.208987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.415117, "energy": 51.420682, "activity_lines": [ 0.33, 0.342636, 0.367429, 0.38329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 0.29, "volume": 218000, "typical_volume": 430600.0, "trend": 0.406667, "fair_value": 0.263752, "relative_strength": -11.119427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.431738, "energy": 60.265371, "activity_lines": [ 0.311667, 0.329545, 0.358714, 0.375161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 0.285, "volume": 458000, "typical_volume": 438200.0, "trend": 0.396167, "fair_value": 0.263152, "relative_strength": -12.05863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.494944, "energy": 67.951875, "activity_lines": [ 0.299667, 0.318909, 0.350262, 0.367312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }