{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81f42542-c74a-4147-8a9f-69cd4d70adcd", "symbol": "546", "name": "Medtecs International Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.027, "architecture_energy": 49.547, "architecture_maturity": 8.494, "architecture_confidence": 87.855, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.42, "rotation_up": 12.55, "upward_expansion": 8.53, "deceleration": 42.36, "rotation_down": 65.38, "downward_expansion": 84.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.113133, 0.114509, 0.117652, 0.118069 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.112, "trend_reference": 0.118667, "distance_from_trend": -0.05618, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.131679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14945, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.173616, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.07438, "excess_performance": -0.229215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05618, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01166, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14945, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076375, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221736, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07438, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.622596, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1967900, "relative_activity": 0.192214, "balance": 0.622596, "dry_up": 0.27881, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059753, "annualized_volatility": 0.226035, "from_high_reference": -0.238095, "from_low_reference": 0.027523 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.118667, "fair_value_reference": 0.131679, "structural_low": 0.109, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.007143, "positive_rate": 0.457143, "directional_follow_through": 0.514286, "median_excess_return": -0.011763, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.764151, "worst_return": -0.376471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.023216, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.02502, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.594828, "worst_return": -0.49375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.015873, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.086358, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.301887, "worst_return": -0.54375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.191279, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.29959, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.044444, "worst_return": -0.732597, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091549, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.213115, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056738, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05036, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007634, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038168, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055118, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024793, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084746, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02459, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017699, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00885, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.142, "volume": 16990900, "typical_volume": 40792535.0, "trend": 0.144167, "fair_value": 0.453428, "relative_strength": -1.860556, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", 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29.913214, "activity_lines": [ 0.116067, 0.119273, 0.119781, 0.119585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.113, "volume": 2132200, "typical_volume": 10183190.0, "trend": 0.119167, "fair_value": 0.132115, "relative_strength": -20.60021, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.800147, "energy": 43.817147, "activity_lines": [ 0.1146, 0.117745, 0.1192, 0.119172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.115, "volume": 4315800, "typical_volume": 10146760.0, "trend": 0.119067, "fair_value": 0.131949, "relative_strength": -19.756707, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.608099, "energy": 52.336824, "activity_lines": [ 0.1144, 0.116782, 0.118843, 0.118903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.113, "volume": 3002000, "typical_volume": 10180775.0, "trend": 0.118867, "fair_value": 0.131808, "relative_strength": -21.093677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.535192, "energy": 49.482357, "activity_lines": [ 0.1138, 0.115564, 0.11829, 0.118512 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.112, "volume": 1967900, "typical_volume": 10238055.0, "trend": 0.118667, "fair_value": 0.131679, "relative_strength": -22.173616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.027262, "energy": 49.546931, "activity_lines": [ 0.113133, 0.114509, 0.117652, 0.118069 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }