{ "ticker": { "uuid": "81fd1a68-ad73-4c6e-853b-d8fc06071b4c", "symbol": "XNUS", "name": "Xtrackers USA Net Zero Pathway Paris Aligned UCITS ETF 1C EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.466, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.158, "architecture_energy": 62.814, "architecture_maturity": 79.73, "architecture_confidence": 57.909, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.28, "rotation_up": 54.24, "upward_expansion": 74.83, "deceleration": 82.25, "rotation_down": 27.99, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.129999, 50.177181, 49.462476, 48.262892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 50.470001, "trend_reference": 46.962333, "distance_from_trend": 0.074691, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.379744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.249884, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.117783, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.120684, "excess_performance": -0.050208, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074691, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038844, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.249884, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031145, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051178, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009197, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120684, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8574.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.003043, "balance": 8574.0, "dry_up": 0.003804, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011804, "annualized_volatility": 0.126741, "from_high_reference": -0.009615, "from_low_reference": 0.207416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.962333, "fair_value_reference": 40.379744, "structural_low": 42.540001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.007531, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.002804, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.065877, "worst_return": -0.085978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019433, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.009712, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.079567, "worst_return": -0.188351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.009965, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.022468, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.072086, "worst_return": -0.013821, "sufficient": false }, { 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"volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1251.95, "trend": 45.877667, "fair_value": 39.62109, "relative_strength": -3.074306, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.250123, "energy": 85.34006, "activity_lines": [ 49.941999, 49.467273, 47.585214, 46.734667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 50.52, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1251.95, "trend": 46.056833, "fair_value": 39.749007, "relative_strength": -3.962603, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.150128, "energy": 72.358247, "activity_lines": [ 50.112999, 49.78, 47.992905, 47.034172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.700001, "volume": 956, "typical_volume": 711.8, "trend": 46.242, "fair_value": 39.878077, "relative_strength": -3.148313, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.05993, "energy": 71.215097, "activity_lines": [ 50.299666, 50.051364, 48.391619, 47.333731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.849998, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 712.1, "trend": 46.4545, "fair_value": 40.008109, "relative_strength": -1.410668, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.160154, "energy": 72.399378, "activity_lines": [ 50.511666, 50.272636, 48.773047, 47.631021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.599998, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 712.0, "trend": 46.625333, "fair_value": 40.130128, "relative_strength": -3.584012, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.477135, "energy": 66.842512, "activity_lines": [ 50.272332, 50.199999, 49.001643, 47.833957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.599998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 663.5, "trend": 46.796167, "fair_value": 40.252148, "relative_strength": -4.114272, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.381654, "energy": 61.083775, "activity_lines": [ 50.057999, 50.115454, 49.204309, 48.025871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.470001, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 657.2, "trend": 46.962333, "fair_value": 40.379744, "relative_strength": -5.117783, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.15842, "energy": 62.813647, "activity_lines": [ 50.129999, 50.177181, 49.462476, 48.262892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }