{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8201c4eb-29c3-41e2-942a-c5cc012e2410", "symbol": "XZEU", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Europe ESG UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.67, "architecture_energy": 77.108, "architecture_maturity": 46.232, "architecture_confidence": 81.799, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 64.45, "upward_expansion": 90.6, "deceleration": 49.39, "rotation_down": 26.52, "downward_expansion": 14.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.283666, 37.061636, 36.213285, 35.486527 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 37.77, "trend_reference": 34.752333, "distance_from_trend": 0.086833, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.559423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.19679, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.6453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.117786, "excess_performance": -0.053105, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086833, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037197, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.19679, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083032, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046333, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117786, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.869843, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5224, "relative_activity": 0.284958, "balance": 2.869843, "dry_up": 0.962989, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01723, "annualized_volatility": 0.149028, "from_high_reference": -0.002245, "from_low_reference": 0.234919 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.752333, "fair_value_reference": 31.559423, "structural_low": 30.584999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.003362, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.006288, "regime_survival": 0.694444, "best_return": 0.071457, "worst_return": -0.096706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003688, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.034339, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.102935, "worst_return": -0.055166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043176, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.042489, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.126441, "worst_return": -0.129579, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.40187, "energy": 88.445847, "activity_lines": [ 36.873333, 36.293727, 35.258929, 34.773054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.919998, "volume": 20824, "typical_volume": 22142.1, "trend": 34.386833, "fair_value": 31.354071, "relative_strength": -4.130534, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.822827, "energy": 86.858518, "activity_lines": [ 36.954666, 36.505272, 35.490952, 34.944355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.02, "volume": 35385, "typical_volume": 22025.1, "trend": 34.508167, "fair_value": 31.417821, "relative_strength": -3.477382, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.98088, "energy": 84.594122, "activity_lines": [ 37.009666, 36.686363, 35.722571, 35.114236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.139999, "volume": 9183, "typical_volume": 19896.65, "trend": 34.631333, "fair_value": 31.486859, "relative_strength": -3.651604, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.493529, "energy": 68.364492, "activity_lines": [ 37.059666, 36.833818, 35.948381, 35.284032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.77, "volume": 5224, "typical_volume": 18332.5, "trend": 34.752333, "fair_value": 31.559423, "relative_strength": -4.6453, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.670051, "energy": 77.108282, "activity_lines": [ 37.283666, 37.061636, 36.213285, 35.486527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }