{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8204b2fa-334e-4635-a7f6-5ccf44f6a892", "symbol": "V3MA", "name": "Vanguard ESG Emerging Markets All Cap UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.372, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.217, "architecture_energy": 25.617, "architecture_maturity": 61.611, "architecture_confidence": 82.82, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.04, "rotation_up": 32.39, "upward_expansion": 59.07, "deceleration": 85.3, "rotation_down": 32.75, "downward_expansion": 20.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.3471, 9.380891, 9.362164, 9.225598 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.5735, "trend_reference": 9.0695, "distance_from_trend": 0.055571, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.171067, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335017, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.845076, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.07834, "excess_performance": 0.027104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055571, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043639, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335017, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055664, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018451, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083747, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07834, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.615361, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3481, "relative_activity": 0.626519, "balance": 0.615361, "dry_up": 1.58155, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028817, "annualized_volatility": 0.200334, "from_high_reference": -0.008647, "from_low_reference": 0.252011 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.0695, "fair_value_reference": 7.171067, "structural_low": 8.042, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001819, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.021784, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.126133, "worst_return": -0.003083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.088033, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.052787, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172619, "worst_return": 0.053851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.161969, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.091109, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192357, "worst_return": 0.073029, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.100042, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.051942, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.100042, "worst_return": 0.100042, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037887, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025077, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029106, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019534, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000666, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005396, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070563, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027522, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.114109, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"close": 9.137, "volume": 25832, "typical_volume": 14885.65, "trend": 8.980617, "fair_value": 7.104968, "relative_strength": 0.133625, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.792184, "energy": 28.096376, "activity_lines": [ 9.3946, 9.418782, 9.304198, 9.163003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.182, "volume": 1414, "typical_volume": 5508.55, "trend": 9.00995, "fair_value": 7.125099, "relative_strength": -0.680207, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.706851, "energy": 21.17757, "activity_lines": [ 9.306667, 9.377418, 9.312895, 9.175996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.2415, "volume": 4422, "typical_volume": 5394.5, "trend": 9.036217, "fair_value": 7.146449, "relative_strength": -1.306875, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.440405, "energy": 20.13709, "activity_lines": [ 9.268833, 9.348118, 9.323788, 9.190934 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.5735, "volume": 3481, "typical_volume": 5556.1, "trend": 9.0695, "fair_value": 7.171067, "relative_strength": 1.845076, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.217002, "energy": 25.617363, "activity_lines": [ 9.3471, 9.380891, 9.362164, 9.225598 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }