{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82078273-55aa-4a34-961f-b016fc459b7b", "symbol": "SHK", "name": "S H Kelkar and Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 50.535, "architecture_energy": 65.073, "architecture_maturity": 19.738, "architecture_confidence": 69.273, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.44, "rotation_up": 69.03, "upward_expansion": 58.2, "deceleration": 26.95, "rotation_down": 24.3, "downward_expansion": 28.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 154.004663, 145.028544, 140.449523, 139.44401 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 168.539993, "trend_reference": 140.834037, "distance_from_trend": 0.196728, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 193.366223, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.12839, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.923212, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.001649, "excess_performance": 0.045358, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.196728, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080574, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.12839, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073249, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009232, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.19092, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001649, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.676354, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3487856, "relative_activity": 1.220608, "balance": 3.676354, "dry_up": 2.977126, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077466, "annualized_volatility": 0.505391, "from_high_reference": -0.384722, "from_low_reference": 0.50509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 140.834037, "fair_value_reference": 193.366223, "structural_low": 111.980003, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.008353, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.020733, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.282292, "worst_return": -0.165646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016752, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003396, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.368511, "worst_return": -0.102481, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.118092, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.1581, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.600336, "worst_return": -0.318804, "sufficient": false }, { 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0.127511, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.20843, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057153, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077926, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116608, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003053, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041278, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025733, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.194863, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.173095, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023999, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 146.60759, "volume": 6849959, "typical_volume": 1507238.1, "trend": 111.346622, "fair_value": 129.506238, "relative_strength": 12.536226, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"fair_value": 192.989208, "relative_strength": -14.498941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.202478, "energy": 13.538579, "activity_lines": [ 133.853333, 133.161455, 134.355762, 136.19878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 164.589996, "volume": 22815407, "typical_volume": 2787781.5, "trend": 141.151908, "fair_value": 193.207917, "relative_strength": -1.500075, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.840006, "energy": 32.929818, "activity_lines": [ 144.265332, 139.073091, 137.319095, 137.677037 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 168.539993, "volume": 3487856, "typical_volume": 2857473.3, "trend": 140.834037, "fair_value": 193.366223, "relative_strength": 0.923212, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.534957, "energy": 65.072881, "activity_lines": [ 154.004663, 145.028544, 140.449523, 139.44401 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }