{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "820ca0a7-636b-416d-8fd4-189faf4d28fc",
    "symbol": "GRC",
    "name": "Amundi MSCI Greece UCITS ETF Dist",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.432,
    "architecture_energy": 70.194,
    "architecture_maturity": 33.609,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.491,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 6.79,
        "rotation_up": 70.05,
        "upward_expansion": 87.67,
        "deceleration": 54.48,
        "rotation_down": 20.1,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        2.858667,
        2.815891,
        2.708029,
        2.632513
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 2.933,
    "trend_reference": 2.561933,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.144839,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 1.817911,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.61339,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 3.980478,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.113093,
    "excess_performance": -0.057799,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.144839,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.068502,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.61339,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.146907,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039805,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.072272,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.113093,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.453565,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 209653,
      "relative_activity": 0.529557,
      "balance": 1.453565,
      "dry_up": 0.923689,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.032954,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.240649,
      "from_high_reference": -0.012624,
      "from_low_reference": 0.386705
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 2.561933,
      "fair_value_reference": 1.817911,
      "structural_low": 2.162,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 40,
        "median_return": 0.015802,
        "positive_rate": 0.65,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.65,
        "median_excess_return": 0.004893,
        "regime_survival": 0.7,
        "best_return": 0.114281,
        "worst_return": -0.121278,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.053876,
        "positive_rate": 0.785714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.785714,
        "median_excess_return": 0.021178,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.263646,
        "worst_return": -0.133226,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.098957,
        "positive_rate": 0.888889,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.888889,
        "median_excess_return": 0.027082,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.34959,
        "worst_return": -0.119552,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.280978,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.138339,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.59909,
        "worst_return": -0.069844,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-12-15",
        "end": "2024-01-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.055873,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-02-02",
        "end": "2024-04-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.020068,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-12",
        "end": "2024-05-03",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "return": 0.043621,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.054414,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.133001,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 2.8875,
        "volume": 197261,
        "typical_volume": 530093.35,
        "trend": 2.544617,
        "fair_value": 1.807201,
        "relative_strength": 5.396795,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.385435,
        "energy": 68.385988,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 2.933,
        "volume": 209653,
        "typical_volume": 395902.65,
        "trend": 2.561933,
        "fair_value": 1.817911,
        "relative_strength": 3.980478,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.431991,
        "energy": 70.194324,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}