{ "ticker": { "uuid": "820efa76-c6f6-4179-ae5a-ec38d19b3554", "symbol": "PNQI", "name": "INVESCO NASDAQ INTERNET ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.272, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.565, "architecture_energy": 51.496, "architecture_maturity": 10.725, "architecture_confidence": 52.995, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.91, "rotation_up": 64.82, "upward_expansion": 56.84, "deceleration": 25.25, "rotation_down": 20.39, "downward_expansion": 19.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.279607, 48.234271, 47.924114, 47.655237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 51.7809, "trend_reference": 47.76576, "distance_from_trend": 0.084059, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.674684, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.159066, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.979349, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.086009, "excess_performance": -0.101445, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084059, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042248, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.159066, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029386, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109793, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101134, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086009, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.313179, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 214147, "relative_activity": 0.834668, "balance": 1.313179, "dry_up": 1.460324, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045403, "annualized_volatility": 0.251592, "from_high_reference": -0.095059, "from_low_reference": 0.209834 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.76576, "fair_value_reference": 44.674684, "structural_low": 42.8, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.053623, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.013681, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.10461, "worst_return": -0.125713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.101621, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.066351, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.156952, "worst_return": -0.260803, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.049239, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.077909, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.259215, "worst_return": -0.420617, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127895, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037594, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0642, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070069, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032789, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -17.354005, "energy": 9.533273, "activity_lines": [ 47.60162, 47.260084, 47.368338, 47.457795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.37, "volume": 473971, "typical_volume": 246365.55, "trend": 47.995137, "fair_value": 44.439028, "relative_strength": -16.607818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.85269, "energy": 18.804153, "activity_lines": [ 47.367787, 47.081047, 47.297936, 47.33545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.02, "volume": 442430, "typical_volume": 256696.75, "trend": 47.849063, "fair_value": 44.546309, "relative_strength": -11.873397, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.519295, "energy": 17.178892, "activity_lines": [ 47.9883, 47.414375, 47.486852, 47.40157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.7809, "volume": 214147, "typical_volume": 256565.35, "trend": 47.76576, "fair_value": 44.674684, "relative_strength": -10.979349, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.565225, "energy": 51.495506, "activity_lines": [ 49.279607, 48.234271, 47.924114, 47.655237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }