{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8217b5e3-dc9a-45a2-8202-1ff1373fb3d9", "symbol": "ON", "name": "ON Semiconductor Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -18.023, "architecture_energy": 28.551, "architecture_maturity": 44.841, "architecture_confidence": 79.15, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.43, "rotation_up": 14.16, "upward_expansion": 43.83, "deceleration": 80.94, "rotation_down": 46.18, "downward_expansion": 35.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1536.193327, 1615.535629, 1700.716708, 1606.919589 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1382.52002, "trend_reference": 1464.58667, "distance_from_trend": -0.056034, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1250.390066, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.105671, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.176058, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.256951, "excess_performance": 0.311617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056034, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198869, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.105671, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.30854, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.091761, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.40279, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.256951, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.254767, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1969, "relative_activity": 0.873674, "balance": 0.254767, "dry_up": 0.219528, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121698, "annualized_volatility": 0.679024, "from_high_reference": -0.395223, "from_low_reference": 0.589103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1464.58667, "fair_value_reference": 1250.390066, "structural_low": 1030.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.01779, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.025998, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.5625, "worst_return": -0.292365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.069751, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.1252, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.456214, "worst_return": -0.223529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062679, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.013485, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.269221, "worst_return": -0.385765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.132732, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.205488, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.097744, "worst_return": -0.32242, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054783, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055311, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003817, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.246097, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044335, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069514, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093678, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070682, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112432, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", 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1670.527995, 1774.992354, 1724.003758, 1590.167269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1683.98999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2155.0, "trend": 1440.039669, "fair_value": 1253.273976, "relative_strength": 35.334963, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.913254, "energy": 27.203044, "activity_lines": [ 1664.725325, 1744.758172, 1734.117519, 1607.368343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1506.589966, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 2155.25, "trend": 1456.026001, "fair_value": 1251.84186, "relative_strength": 19.637105, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.908024, "energy": 16.177683, "activity_lines": [ 1617.923983, 1687.844713, 1724.459944, 1611.661911 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1382.52002, "volume": 1969, "typical_volume": 2253.7, "trend": 1464.58667, "fair_value": 1250.390066, "relative_strength": 9.176058, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -18.02285, "energy": 28.551472, "activity_lines": [ 1536.193327, 1615.535629, 1700.716708, 1606.919589 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }