{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82241a22-a199-4356-a49c-ef03b47c6064", "symbol": "104520", "name": "KOSEF Blue Chip", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.643, "architecture_energy": 29.049, "architecture_maturity": 2.584, "architecture_confidence": 59.932, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.02, "rotation_up": 16.35, "upward_expansion": 18.23, "deceleration": 56.8, "rotation_down": 57.76, "downward_expansion": 45.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 14550.566667, 14816.282582, 15287.96988, 15198.177844 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14830.0, "trend_reference": 14939.08724, "distance_from_trend": -0.007302, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9816.455207, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.510729, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.66649, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.097291, "excess_performance": -0.132537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007302, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084565, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.510729, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286589, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086665, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157685, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097291, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.66554, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11999, "relative_activity": 1.81436, "balance": 0.66554, "dry_up": 2.623443, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078386, "annualized_volatility": 0.312096, "from_high_reference": -0.13452, "from_low_reference": 0.47339 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14939.08724, "fair_value_reference": 9816.455207, "structural_low": 12965.503003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.011047, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.008284, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.011047, "worst_return": -0.011047, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.071566, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.008558, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.071566, "worst_return": -0.071566, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.121037, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.024832, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.121037, "worst_return": -0.121037, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016677, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050299, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025088, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061707, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042889, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 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15331.712375, 15199.5226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14830.0, "volume": 11999, "typical_volume": 6613.35, "trend": 14939.08724, "fair_value": 9816.455207, "relative_strength": -8.66649, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.643299, "energy": 29.048981, "activity_lines": [ 14550.566667, 14816.282582, 15287.96988, 15198.177844 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }