{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8229506d-52fa-4a45-918b-9b84f856b65f", "symbol": "XPXD", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Pacific ex Japan Screened UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.549, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 48.655, "architecture_energy": 59.591, "architecture_maturity": 10.012, "architecture_confidence": 77.97, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.36, "rotation_up": 74.54, "upward_expansion": 51.34, "deceleration": 20.6, "rotation_down": 14.12, "downward_expansion": 24.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.373997, 93.696726, 93.222881, 93.330559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 98.224998, "trend_reference": 93.534, "distance_from_trend": 0.050153, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.44515, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.394347, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.850839, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039913, "excess_performance": -0.011322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050153, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016503, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.394347, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021884, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008508, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012966, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039913, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.540153, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1243, "relative_activity": 0.110648, "balance": 0.540153, "dry_up": 0.32854, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021505, "annualized_volatility": 0.189298, "from_high_reference": -0.014745, "from_low_reference": 0.161876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 93.534, "fair_value_reference": 70.44515, "structural_low": 88.120003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.023955, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.001538, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.06744, "worst_return": -0.096837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049662, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.022937, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.423697, "worst_return": -0.129209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.063483, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005781, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.49304, "worst_return": -0.111275, 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91.72328, "fair_value": 67.408483, "relative_strength": -1.744049, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.933736, "energy": 16.726899, "activity_lines": [ 94.185335, 94.104728, 94.097358, 93.165997 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 92.379997, "volume": 11885, "typical_volume": 18866.5, "trend": 91.837833, "fair_value": 67.656144, "relative_strength": -4.482134, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.034812, "energy": 7.437931, "activity_lines": [ 93.399, 93.915546, 93.978834, 93.208366 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 93.709999, "volume": 2950, "typical_volume": 18261.55, "trend": 92.0155, "fair_value": 67.911881, "relative_strength": -2.508819, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.91126, "energy": 9.98725, "activity_lines": [ 93.403666, 93.957, 93.969953, 93.329151 ] }, { "date": 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"stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.494097, "energy": 31.292092, "activity_lines": [ 91.286669, 91.438729, 92.359215, 92.801431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 93.269997, "volume": 4826, "typical_volume": 15487.75, "trend": 92.896501, "fair_value": 69.628419, "relative_strength": -3.530982, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.209138, "energy": 18.95363, "activity_lines": [ 91.981667, 91.681364, 92.389382, 92.836796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 94.089996, "volume": 6951, "typical_volume": 13614.4, "trend": 93.047334, "fair_value": 69.884285, "relative_strength": -3.782753, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.267114, "energy": 16.836721, "activity_lines": [ 92.847665, 92.106727, 92.528238, 92.913796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 94.519997, "volume": 1743, "typical_volume": 13513.35, "trend": 93.237834, "fair_value": 70.14983, "relative_strength": -4.404029, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.684051, "energy": 25.153604, "activity_lines": [ 93.657998, 92.584363, 92.70569, 93.008807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 98.224998, "volume": 1243, "typical_volume": 11233.8, "trend": 93.534, "fair_value": 70.44515, "relative_strength": -0.850839, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.655289, "energy": 59.591358, "activity_lines": [ 95.373997, 93.696726, 93.222881, 93.330559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }