{ "ticker": { "uuid": "823a6d10-254e-4b9e-96e5-2d8b5fb73369", "symbol": "002943", "name": "Hunan Yujing Machinery Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.798, "architecture_energy": 82.449, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.797, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.06, "rotation_up": 8.4, "upward_expansion": 19.88, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 79.11, "downward_expansion": 95.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.606, 37.807734, 44.833633, 48.109369 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 35.959999, "trend_reference": 53.133513, "distance_from_trend": -0.323214, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.103422, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235593, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.785851, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.524087, "excess_performance": -0.531487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.323214, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049433, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235593, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.879177, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227859, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.411988, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.524087, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.721224, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59421241, "relative_activity": 1.014194, "balance": 0.721224, "dry_up": 0.96074, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.232693, "annualized_volatility": 0.922738, "from_high_reference": -0.595728, "from_low_reference": 0.391102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.133513, "fair_value_reference": 29.103422, "structural_low": 25.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.016142, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.009434, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.39894, "worst_return": -0.204813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.033672, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.002386, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.61728, "worst_return": -0.281725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.06178, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.031452, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.015908, "worst_return": -0.257539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.78716, "energy": 64.717926, "activity_lines": [ 46.858, 51.307216, 51.858974, 53.770857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.5, "volume": 50173194, "typical_volume": 56478957.8, "trend": 53.745846, "fair_value": 28.97922, "relative_strength": -25.223354, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.414035, "energy": 81.097374, "activity_lines": [ 41.964, 47.486056, 50.037806, 52.456135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.23, "volume": 62093496, "typical_volume": 56616453.95, "trend": 53.574179, "fair_value": 29.025032, "relative_strength": -32.744045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.936444, "energy": 86.741086, "activity_lines": [ 37.072667, 43.503217, 48.087923, 50.938984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.01, "volume": 53469622, "typical_volume": 57223027.35, "trend": 53.254846, "fair_value": 29.042473, "relative_strength": -38.848512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.830193, "energy": 91.001605, "activity_lines": [ 32.542667, 39.486685, 45.969754, 49.225166 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.959999, "volume": 59421241, "typical_volume": 58589595.65, "trend": 53.133513, "fair_value": 29.103422, "relative_strength": -22.785851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.798338, "energy": 82.448585, "activity_lines": [ 32.606, 37.807734, 44.833633, 48.109369 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }