{ "ticker": { "uuid": "823b4ea0-b26f-4817-aaf1-12a5e5d75b49", "symbol": "5ML", "name": "Old Chang Kee Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.921, "architecture_energy": 29.783, "architecture_maturity": 24.023, "architecture_confidence": 66.665, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.28, "rotation_up": 54.86, "upward_expansion": 73.8, "deceleration": 57.54, "rotation_down": 19.22, "downward_expansion": 9.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.18, 1.174545, 1.172714, 1.17228 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.17, "trend_reference": 1.169667, "distance_from_trend": 0.000285, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.87633, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.45596, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017391, "excess_performance": -0.137444, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000285, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010111, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335114, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053394, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14456, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092604, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017391, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.550725, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10900, "relative_activity": 0.201014, "balance": 3.550725, "dry_up": 0.215307, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023669, "annualized_volatility": 0.132228, "from_high_reference": -0.1, "from_low_reference": 0.093093 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.169667, "fair_value_reference": 0.87633, "structural_low": 1.14, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.00752, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.016968, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.039369, "worst_return": -0.060605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.028571, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.032407, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.038759, "worst_return": -0.051852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017725, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015898, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.062501, "worst_return": -0.06039, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.861203, "relative_strength": -12.840202, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.072895, "energy": 11.089442, "activity_lines": [ 1.162, 1.162727, 1.169143, 1.168022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.18, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 91415.0, "trend": 1.165333, "fair_value": 0.865021, "relative_strength": -11.727956, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.726397, "energy": 13.492747, "activity_lines": [ 1.166667, 1.166182, 1.170048, 1.169097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.19, "volume": 14400, "typical_volume": 72625.0, "trend": 1.166667, "fair_value": 0.868932, "relative_strength": -11.905444, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.251082, "energy": 19.748714, "activity_lines": [ 1.174667, 1.170909, 1.171762, 1.170688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.19, "volume": 21000, "typical_volume": 62440.0, "trend": 1.168667, "fair_value": 0.872755, "relative_strength": -12.24408, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.676403, "energy": 38.667613, "activity_lines": [ 1.181333, 1.174909, 1.173286, 1.172194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.17, "volume": 10900, "typical_volume": 54225.0, "trend": 1.169667, "fair_value": 0.87633, "relative_strength": -14.45596, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.920991, "energy": 29.782602, "activity_lines": [ 1.18, 1.174545, 1.172714, 1.17228 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }