{ "ticker": { "uuid": "823f0a44-27e6-4da2-b0c0-84de235012f4", "symbol": "600293", "name": "Hubei Sanxia New Building Materials Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.787, "architecture_energy": 55.463, "architecture_maturity": 19.23, "architecture_confidence": 83.149, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.09, "rotation_up": 12.3, "upward_expansion": 10.19, "deceleration": 42.35, "rotation_down": 65.56, "downward_expansion": 83.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.684, 2.806, 2.998143, 3.099656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.77, "trend_reference": 3.222333, "distance_from_trend": -0.140374, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.041346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.089219, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.571795, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.22191, "excess_performance": -0.178706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140374, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020667, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.089219, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166254, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04745, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22191, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.046251, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 153311205, "relative_activity": 0.828599, "balance": 1.046251, "dry_up": 1.208833, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144127, "annualized_volatility": 0.562841, "from_high_reference": -0.305764, "from_low_reference": 0.158996 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.222333, "fair_value_reference": 3.041346, "structural_low": 2.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.003484, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.015316, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.151515, "worst_return": -0.114478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.041825, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.025147, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.433884, "worst_return": -0.116279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.025862, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.077852, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.424242, "worst_return": -0.187135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024138, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.131313, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13764, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": 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2.52, "volume": 209468569, "typical_volume": 194041115.9, "trend": 3.257333, "fair_value": 3.041538, "relative_strength": -18.55926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.415315, "energy": 77.259629, "activity_lines": [ 2.663333, 2.931636, 3.075905, 3.166258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.69, "volume": 156808674, "typical_volume": 189851671.55, "trend": 3.235, "fair_value": 3.041218, "relative_strength": -13.052044, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.914561, "energy": 70.604652, "activity_lines": [ 2.650667, 2.856727, 3.031095, 3.129656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.77, "volume": 153311205, "typical_volume": 185024544.35, "trend": 3.222333, "fair_value": 3.041346, "relative_strength": -12.571795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.787426, "energy": 55.463295, "activity_lines": [ 2.684, 2.806, 2.998143, 3.099656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }