{ "ticker": { "uuid": "824232ec-cc37-4a86-a573-7de503217a9c", "symbol": "ESGH", "name": "Amundi MSCI Europe ESG Selection UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.375, "architecture_energy": 65.822, "architecture_maturity": 75.892, "architecture_confidence": 65.277, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.41, "rotation_up": 49.6, "upward_expansion": 80.67, "deceleration": 72.86, "rotation_down": 29.34, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.012667, 30.955237, 30.394667, 29.82351 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 31.33, "trend_reference": 29.217033, "distance_from_trend": 0.07232, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.445863, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231241, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.121251, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.099105, "excess_performance": 0.045794, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07232, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043473, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231241, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064839, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041213, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017256, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099105, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.149846, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4050, "relative_activity": 0.330853, "balance": 1.149846, "dry_up": 1.373876, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01564, "annualized_volatility": 0.159372, "from_high_reference": -0.002706, "from_low_reference": 0.239467 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.217033, "fair_value_reference": 25.445863, "structural_low": 25.726999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.011952, "positive_rate": 0.586207, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": 0.002931, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.070226, "worst_return": -0.098079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.020799, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.014168, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.109013, "worst_return": -0.012525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.083073, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.038527, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.152346, "worst_return": -0.037121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 30.9852, 30.577346, 29.744662, 29.303267 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.84, "volume": 5077, "typical_volume": 15134.2, "trend": 28.888367, "fair_value": 25.270479, "relative_strength": 7.770527, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.45167, "energy": 85.603626, "activity_lines": [ 30.973667, 30.700764, 29.9122, 29.436716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.790001, "volume": 6285, "typical_volume": 12814.25, "trend": 29.005933, "fair_value": 25.325376, "relative_strength": 6.916998, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.45462, "energy": 71.625814, "activity_lines": [ 30.918001, 30.778637, 30.068486, 29.559402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.885, "volume": 51859, "typical_volume": 15060.9, "trend": 29.1154, "fair_value": 25.384921, "relative_strength": 5.309049, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.217901, "energy": 59.867426, "activity_lines": [ 30.889667, 30.836418, 30.218595, 29.680632 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.33, "volume": 4050, "typical_volume": 12241.1, "trend": 29.217033, "fair_value": 25.445863, "relative_strength": 4.121251, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.375038, "energy": 65.821853, "activity_lines": [ 31.012667, 30.955237, 30.394667, 29.82351 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }