{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82429ab3-6a50-4256-b553-5700b9412ad1", "symbol": "688148", "name": "Guangdong Fangyuan New Materials Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.931, "architecture_energy": 75.792, "architecture_maturity": 17.529, "architecture_confidence": 84.652, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.21, "rotation_up": 9.11, "upward_expansion": 17.56, "deceleration": 37.11, "rotation_down": 73.63, "downward_expansion": 90.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.812, 7.335091, 8.158095, 8.398839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.42, "trend_reference": 8.669333, "distance_from_trend": -0.14411, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.568205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129685, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.12099, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.152, "excess_performance": -0.108796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.14411, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06176, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129685, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.443211, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.430885, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.152, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.487738, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78552816, "relative_activity": 0.860289, "balance": 0.487738, "dry_up": 0.959153, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148455, "annualized_volatility": 0.653437, "from_high_reference": -0.460756, "from_low_reference": 0.384328 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.669333, "fair_value_reference": 6.568205, "structural_low": 5.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.052405, "positive_rate": 0.26087, "directional_follow_through": 0.73913, "median_excess_return": -0.051056, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 0.245179, "worst_return": -0.178618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.149785, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.130564, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.297619, "worst_return": -0.316667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.140244, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.155489, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.414286, "worst_return": -0.457552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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8.753333, 8.985455, 9.12781, 9.07329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.51, "volume": 120327603, "typical_volume": 88521123.2, "trend": 8.988667, "fair_value": 6.695321, "relative_strength": -8.691122, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.567283, "energy": 37.218375, "activity_lines": [ 8.36, 8.645455, 8.984143, 8.974538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.27, "volume": 97957285, "typical_volume": 91087083.45, "trend": 8.897333, "fair_value": 6.657308, "relative_strength": -19.207888, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.075913, "energy": 72.546072, "activity_lines": [ 7.597333, 8.140727, 8.727238, 8.79914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.13, "volume": 99617926, "typical_volume": 92921639.45, "trend": 8.803, "fair_value": 6.621987, "relative_strength": -22.095577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.641716, "energy": 80.344388, "activity_lines": [ 6.971333, 7.692364, 8.470095, 8.620602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.66, "volume": 74192505, "typical_volume": 92991980.45, "trend": 8.714333, "fair_value": 6.591987, "relative_strength": -15.886634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.628337, "energy": 80.579586, "activity_lines": [ 6.718, 7.415455, 8.273714, 8.482344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.42, "volume": 78552816, "typical_volume": 91309846.9, "trend": 8.669333, "fair_value": 6.568205, "relative_strength": -9.12099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.931301, "energy": 75.791724, "activity_lines": [ 6.812, 7.335091, 8.158095, 8.398839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }