{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8243bf27-822b-4180-bf86-a1779b5c6315", "symbol": "FEAM", "name": "5E Advanced Materials Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.598, "architecture_energy": 41.355, "architecture_maturity": 34.295, "architecture_confidence": 83.351, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.69, "rotation_up": 17.39, "upward_expansion": 4.3, "deceleration": 57.16, "rotation_down": 60.94, "downward_expansion": 79.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.258667, 1.308182, 1.461238, 1.543075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.5, "trend_reference": 1.768333, "distance_from_trend": -0.151744, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.383713, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.908446, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -53.859826, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.305556, "excess_performance": -0.493009, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151744, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.312156, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.908446, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022318, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.538598, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070946, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.305556, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.580898, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5275906, "relative_activity": 4.062663, "balance": 1.580898, "dry_up": 1.726665, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.240246, "annualized_volatility": 0.893593, "from_high_reference": -0.8, "from_low_reference": 0.666482 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.768333, "fair_value_reference": 16.383713, "structural_low": 0.9001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.120859, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.647541, "worst_return": -0.462351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.198975, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": -0.257265, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.112918, "worst_return": -0.392991, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.563807, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.566868, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.096998, "worst_return": -0.65472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.197911, "energy": 64.716144, "activity_lines": [ 1.400667, 1.544, 1.598143, 1.736258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.11, "volume": 924847, "typical_volume": 1092798.8, "trend": 1.999667, "fair_value": 17.850252, "relative_strength": -66.533892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.091765, "energy": 77.319446, "activity_lines": [ 1.281333, 1.448545, 1.548571, 1.67357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.15, "volume": 2313562, "typical_volume": 1147362.0, "trend": 1.925333, "fair_value": 17.368137, "relative_strength": -63.922165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.798898, "energy": 70.556817, "activity_lines": [ 1.214667, 1.369273, 1.507048, 1.618753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.1, "volume": 454897, "typical_volume": 1121642.0, "trend": 1.847667, "fair_value": 16.845893, "relative_strength": -65.113684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.303128, "energy": 69.6934, "activity_lines": [ 1.161333, 1.295091, 1.463429, 1.565505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.5, "volume": 5275906, "typical_volume": 1298632.35, "trend": 1.768333, "fair_value": 16.383713, "relative_strength": -53.859826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.597608, "energy": 41.355012, "activity_lines": [ 1.258667, 1.308182, 1.461238, 1.543075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }