{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8243ce0b-20bc-4381-98f1-0b72d5bd589a", "symbol": "000629", "name": "Pangang Group Vanadium & Titanium Resources Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.796, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.504, "architecture_energy": 49.628, "architecture_maturity": 16.053, "architecture_confidence": 90.664, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.54, "rotation_up": 17.47, "upward_expansion": 8.82, "deceleration": 44.31, "rotation_down": 55.35, "downward_expansion": 79.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.077333, 3.119455, 3.255714, 3.355333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.13, "trend_reference": 3.480333, "distance_from_trend": -0.100661, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.070833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.019267, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.087556, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.182768, "excess_performance": -0.190167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100661, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004425, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.019267, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223761, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070876, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099147, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.182768, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.905368, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 504901186, "relative_activity": 0.98914, "balance": 0.905368, "dry_up": 0.971502, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084787, "annualized_volatility": 0.440784, "from_high_reference": -0.302895, "from_low_reference": 0.181132 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.480333, "fair_value_reference": 3.070833, "structural_low": 2.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.003165, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.014879, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 1.083565, "worst_return": -0.088235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001856, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042539, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.376206, "worst_return": -0.181159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.058379, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.089521, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.70418, "worst_return": -0.227041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"relative_strength": -7.260785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.818396, "energy": 45.977413, "activity_lines": [ 3.090667, 3.158727, 3.307048, 3.403742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.08, "volume": 453519517, "typical_volume": 521295985.75, "trend": 3.479333, "fair_value": 3.075897, "relative_strength": -3.839922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.004328, "energy": 55.535879, "activity_lines": [ 3.071333, 3.128545, 3.277048, 3.377871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.13, "volume": 504901186, "typical_volume": 510444356.9, "trend": 3.480333, "fair_value": 3.070833, "relative_strength": -7.087556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.503707, "energy": 49.62779, "activity_lines": [ 3.077333, 3.119455, 3.255714, 3.355333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }