{ "ticker": { "uuid": "824481a8-89e6-4d79-aa93-d34eb30521ab", "symbol": "RBO", "name": "Roche Bobois S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.731, "architecture_energy": 69.789, "architecture_maturity": 74.194, "architecture_confidence": 80.386, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.3, "rotation_up": 11.7, "upward_expansion": 14.36, "deceleration": 41.56, "rotation_down": 71.69, "downward_expansion": 87.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.586667, 22.157019, 23.390702, 24.070879 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.5, "trend_reference": 25.067705, "distance_from_trend": -0.102431, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.238815, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.395792, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.807098, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.137931, "excess_performance": -0.191242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102431, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127776, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.395792, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059642, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.278071, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060076, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137931, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.185651, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16554, "relative_activity": 3.190702, "balance": 1.185651, "dry_up": 1.492907, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065097, "annualized_volatility": 0.312287, "from_high_reference": -0.401596, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.067705, "fair_value_reference": 37.238815, "structural_low": 20.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.005831, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.002898, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.145833, "worst_return": -0.12963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.008631, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043929, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.104167, "worst_return": -0.233227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006859, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.084615, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.12963, "worst_return": -0.299728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 4341.8, "trend": 25.661038, "fair_value": 37.547967, "relative_strength": -34.270295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.39327, "energy": 93.381376, "activity_lines": [ 21.345136, 22.49997, 23.79957, 24.491443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.0, "volume": 4738, "typical_volume": 4506.5, "trend": 25.357705, "fair_value": 37.390609, "relative_strength": -28.424734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.958343, "energy": 83.866141, "activity_lines": [ 21.306667, 22.250313, 23.561803, 24.255247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.5, "volume": 16554, "typical_volume": 5188.2, "trend": 25.067705, "fair_value": 37.238815, "relative_strength": -27.807098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.73092, "energy": 69.788632, "activity_lines": [ 21.586667, 22.157019, 23.390702, 24.070879 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }