{ "ticker": { "uuid": "824a9294-aaaf-4211-82d3-4bc7884fc5e6", "symbol": "SBUL", "name": "WisdomTree Gold 1x Daily Short ETP Securities", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.528, "architecture_energy": 45.036, "architecture_maturity": 61.169, "architecture_confidence": 59.439, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.39, "rotation_up": 50.45, "upward_expansion": 73.32, "deceleration": 59.66, "rotation_down": 25.94, "downward_expansion": 18.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.194533, 7.223291, 6.974595, 6.758925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.807, "trend_reference": 6.496033, "distance_from_trend": 0.04787, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.552712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.354953, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.559194, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.149637, "excess_performance": -0.021255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04787, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005775, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.354953, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092028, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165592, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113702, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149637, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.125456, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 486686, "relative_activity": 2.071735, "balance": 1.125456, "dry_up": 1.666817, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045666, "annualized_volatility": 0.257465, "from_high_reference": -0.246179, "from_low_reference": 0.290671 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.496033, "fair_value_reference": 10.552712, "structural_low": 5.432, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.007414, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.003516, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.085939, "worst_return": -0.114367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.031167, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.056923, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.156422, "worst_return": -0.082345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.04773, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.013692, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.061197, "worst_return": -0.088892, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035963, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032942, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.085207, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06104, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", 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-8.08387, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.734865, "energy": 89.898831, "activity_lines": [ 7.331533, 7.156182, 6.824305, 6.620839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.382, "volume": 227026, "typical_volume": 209982.1, "trend": 6.477367, "fair_value": 10.647763, "relative_strength": -8.12687, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.962421, "energy": 76.049548, "activity_lines": [ 7.359667, 7.229727, 6.899833, 6.680725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.375, "volume": 392291, "typical_volume": 224637.7, "trend": 6.492533, "fair_value": 10.603038, "relative_strength": -7.909726, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.761868, "energy": 64.174236, "activity_lines": [ 7.372733, 7.285709, 6.96759, 6.738637 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.807, "volume": 486686, "typical_volume": 234917.1, "trend": 6.496033, "fair_value": 10.552712, "relative_strength": -16.559194, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.528245, "energy": 45.036164, "activity_lines": [ 7.194533, 7.223291, 6.974595, 6.758925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }