{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82535130-6981-4ec9-a393-8d696ecea82d", "symbol": "FOOD", "name": "Rize Sustainable Future of Food UCITS ETF A USD", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 64.533, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.017, "architecture_energy": 36.213, "architecture_maturity": 20.701, "architecture_confidence": 44.759, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.66, "rotation_up": 53.83, "upward_expansion": 48.13, "deceleration": 44.0, "rotation_down": 24.66, "downward_expansion": 11.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.389033, 3.375936, 3.325343, 3.312619 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.4255, "trend_reference": 3.3162, "distance_from_trend": 0.032959, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.49683, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.020399, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.265123, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.010543, "excess_performance": -0.181435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032959, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022882, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.020399, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059076, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102651, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030968, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010543, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.407031, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34336, "relative_activity": 1.205243, "balance": 0.407031, "dry_up": 1.898137, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023714, "annualized_volatility": 0.153357, "from_high_reference": -0.032345, "from_low_reference": 0.148533 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.3162, "fair_value_reference": 3.49683, "structural_low": 3.063, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019845, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.022291, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.05707, "worst_return": -0.121581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.058309, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.103587, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.037564, "worst_return": -0.109544, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.054691, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.158465, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.008388, "worst_return": -0.124566, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.406041, "energy": 55.814792, "activity_lines": [ 3.385167, 3.351309, 3.302271, 3.301763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.3585, "volume": 125077, "typical_volume": 27513.4, "trend": 3.311533, "fair_value": 3.499103, "relative_strength": -9.860324, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.442856, "energy": 30.523919, "activity_lines": [ 3.3748, 3.3589, 3.310874, 3.305267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.4255, "volume": 34336, "typical_volume": 28488.85, "trend": 3.3162, "fair_value": 3.49683, "relative_strength": -10.265123, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.017267, "energy": 36.213061, "activity_lines": [ 3.389033, 3.375936, 3.325343, 3.312619 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }