{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82587329-e970-4432-9547-ae584800906b", "symbol": "601677", "name": "Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.554, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 6.772, "architecture_energy": 6.046, "architecture_maturity": 17.001, "architecture_confidence": 49.424, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.81, "rotation_up": 32.23, "upward_expansion": 28.92, "deceleration": 50.82, "rotation_down": 33.34, "downward_expansion": 28.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.347333, 16.21267, 16.656244, 16.633039 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.889999, "trend_reference": 16.505506, "distance_from_trend": 0.023295, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.186886, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280818, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.72681, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006555, "excess_performance": 0.049759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023295, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03753, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.280818, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051812, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.097268, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00299, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006555, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.918947, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112106544, "relative_activity": 0.692333, "balance": 0.918947, "dry_up": 0.965018, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081833, "annualized_volatility": 0.361277, "from_high_reference": -0.140619, "from_low_reference": 0.374823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.505506, "fair_value_reference": 13.186886, "structural_low": 13.97, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.056171, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.040261, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.204274, "worst_return": -0.239012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.091637, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.162975, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14869, "worst_return": -0.48376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.154742, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.192717, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.247009, "worst_return": -0.313964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.19926, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.222324, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.209062, "worst_return": -0.451028, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012399, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027735, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005291, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010621, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060007, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.169357, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066334, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000672, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.248246, "energy": 18.104822, "activity_lines": [ 16.35579, 16.953925, 16.967558, 16.72303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.29, "volume": 180320813, "typical_volume": 164382268.6, "trend": 16.26684, "fair_value": 13.103986, "relative_strength": -0.709636, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.38317, "energy": 33.302674, "activity_lines": [ 15.894667, 16.602329, 16.824962, 16.661621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.52, "volume": 186401457, "typical_volume": 167177515.45, "trend": 16.31684, "fair_value": 13.117287, "relative_strength": 6.70917, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.976339, "energy": 40.964986, "activity_lines": [ 15.682667, 16.333123, 16.707128, 16.613438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.69, "volume": 181729094, "typical_volume": 164629996.5, "trend": 16.36384, "fair_value": 13.13354, "relative_strength": 6.147975, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.372723, "energy": 43.128647, "activity_lines": [ 15.624667, 16.124218, 16.612532, 16.572997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.84, "volume": 144808307, "typical_volume": 163273274.75, "trend": 16.435506, "fair_value": 13.160084, "relative_strength": 12.941831, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.222785, "energy": 17.845039, "activity_lines": [ 15.992, 16.144601, 16.632697, 16.603717 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.889999, "volume": 112106544, "typical_volume": 161925757.35, "trend": 16.505506, "fair_value": 13.186886, "relative_strength": 9.72681, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.771643, "energy": 6.046459, "activity_lines": [ 16.347333, 16.21267, 16.656244, 16.633039 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }