{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8260e73b-19be-44a8-bf83-c657f6f95b8b", "symbol": "ZLSU", "name": "BMO Long Short US Equity ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.37, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.417, "architecture_energy": 66.287, "architecture_maturity": 80.504, "architecture_confidence": 69.02, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.65, "rotation_up": 55.11, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.64, "rotation_down": 29.77, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.111333, 47.002779, 46.228604, 45.297346 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 47.220001, "trend_reference": 44.180519, "distance_from_trend": 0.068797, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.143636, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.206326, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.518821, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.11966, "excess_performance": -0.000761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068797, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026536, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.206326, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043451, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045188, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02928, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11966, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.281629, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4521, "relative_activity": 1.209114, "balance": 1.281629, "dry_up": 1.236996, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011987, "annualized_volatility": 0.078314, "from_high_reference": -0.007566, "from_low_reference": 0.140989 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.180519, "fair_value_reference": 39.143636, "structural_low": 41.385144, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008999, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.028434, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.028085, "worst_return": -0.020036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.006918, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088479, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.030756, "worst_return": -0.044592, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.015207, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.184966, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.015207, "worst_return": -0.015207, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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68.348269, "energy": 82.629912, "activity_lines": [ 47.012296, 46.655162, 45.539317, 44.676896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.09, "volume": 2854, "typical_volume": 4228.75, "trend": 43.915286, "fair_value": 39.035645, "relative_strength": -2.711685, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.193238, "energy": 69.47562, "activity_lines": [ 47.045, 46.801738, 45.79174, 44.890798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.049999, "volume": 10091, "typical_volume": 3746.0, "trend": 44.053219, "fair_value": 39.089432, "relative_strength": -2.082072, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.090366, "energy": 65.680028, "activity_lines": [ 47.060666, 46.901736, 46.014187, 45.093038 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.220001, "volume": 4521, "typical_volume": 3739.1, "trend": 44.180519, "fair_value": 39.143636, "relative_strength": -4.518821, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.417159, "energy": 66.286681, "activity_lines": [ 47.111333, 47.002779, 46.228604, 45.297346 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }