{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82680e7c-335c-4283-906d-e714c02bb5cb", "symbol": "300418", "name": "Kunlun Tech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.578, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.614, "architecture_energy": 24.714, "architecture_maturity": 29.766, "architecture_confidence": 64.489, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.59, "rotation_up": 23.0, "upward_expansion": 11.22, "deceleration": 58.36, "rotation_down": 39.41, "downward_expansion": 65.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.709334, 42.431455, 43.783095, 45.904989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 44.880001, "trend_reference": 48.881333, "distance_from_trend": -0.081858, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.07886, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.148447, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.05559, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.195699, "excess_performance": -0.203099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081858, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002132, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.148447, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203373, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050556, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069241, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195699, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.986334, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 468385474, "relative_activity": 1.659425, "balance": 0.986334, "dry_up": 1.574325, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146048, "annualized_volatility": 0.677393, "from_high_reference": -0.377445, "from_low_reference": 0.342507 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.881333, "fair_value_reference": 39.07886, "structural_low": 35.290001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.025105, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.001052, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.523897, "worst_return": -0.154053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.061269, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018751, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.263191, "worst_return": -0.151103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.270736, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.150837, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 2.817473, "worst_return": -0.211887, "sufficient": 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"trend": 48.658333, "fair_value": 39.010479, "relative_strength": -19.460293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.630284, "energy": 34.474156, "activity_lines": [ 41.579333, 41.647273, 44.193428, 46.508451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.200001, "volume": 376580032, "typical_volume": 277059431.65, "trend": 48.775333, "fair_value": 39.037141, "relative_strength": -3.764644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.732201, "energy": 22.381822, "activity_lines": [ 42.012667, 41.859455, 43.890857, 46.156301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.880001, "volume": 468385474, "typical_volume": 282257645.55, "trend": 48.881333, "fair_value": 39.07886, "relative_strength": -5.05559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.614169, "energy": 24.71408, "activity_lines": [ 42.709334, 42.431455, 43.783095, 45.904989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }