{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82692a53-c917-4dae-b951-8d2705bd4cf1", "symbol": "NEUP", "name": "Neuphoria Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.089, "architecture_energy": 39.043, "architecture_maturity": 17.621, "architecture_confidence": 85.389, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.69, "rotation_up": 17.34, "upward_expansion": 4.73, "deceleration": 54.17, "rotation_down": 53.35, "downward_expansion": 75.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.727333, 3.795, 4.205548, 4.314677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.82, "trend_reference": 4.363833, "distance_from_trend": -0.124623, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.845591, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.346516, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.11173, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047382, "excess_performance": -0.234835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124623, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018187, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.346516, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.21161, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.451117, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105674, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047382, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.721379, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 180036, "relative_activity": 0.260285, "balance": 3.721379, "dry_up": 3.257699, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177404, "annualized_volatility": 0.652817, "from_high_reference": -0.821499, "from_low_reference": 0.197492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.363833, "fair_value_reference": 5.845591, "structural_low": 3.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147929, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 4.03, "volume": 10150596, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 3.4, "volume": 555496, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"relative_strength": -52.603958, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.640611, "energy": 57.567162, "activity_lines": [ 3.861333, 4.248545, 4.521714, 4.493054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.415, "volume": 158474, "typical_volume": 308516.1, "trend": 4.376833, "fair_value": 5.921161, "relative_strength": -51.531461, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.997415, "energy": 66.128922, "activity_lines": [ 3.655, 4.042364, 4.411571, 4.429978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.64, "volume": 8182119, "typical_volume": 693659.65, "trend": 4.374167, "fair_value": 5.893677, "relative_strength": -46.510906, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.683261, "energy": 62.155717, "activity_lines": [ 3.587333, 3.911545, 4.326357, 4.382441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.88, "volume": 492607, "typical_volume": 698143.2, "trend": 4.376167, "fair_value": 5.869705, "relative_strength": -42.297428, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.88194, "energy": 55.244579, "activity_lines": [ 3.644333, 3.844182, 4.267238, 4.350559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.82, "volume": 180036, "typical_volume": 691687.2, "trend": 4.363833, "fair_value": 5.845591, "relative_strength": -45.11173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.088815, "energy": 39.043017, "activity_lines": [ 3.727333, 3.795, 4.205548, 4.314677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }