{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8270e94f-337a-494f-a907-b87c93727119", "symbol": "AFP", "name": "African Pioneer PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.141, "architecture_energy": 45.389, "architecture_maturity": 38.333, "architecture_confidence": 75.538, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.06, "rotation_up": 59.04, "upward_expansion": 73.61, "deceleration": 64.59, "rotation_down": 15.92, "downward_expansion": 7.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.016667, 0.015209, 0.013249, 0.012341 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.02, "trend_reference": 0.011513, "distance_from_trend": 0.737116, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.015249, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.311531, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 66.763613, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.73913, "excess_performance": 0.687895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.737116, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160423, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.311531, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.757225, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.667636, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.791165, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.73913, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 14.247959, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55609184, "relative_activity": 2.96902, "balance": 14.247959, "dry_up": 2.820393, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.238769, "annualized_volatility": 1.023298, "from_high_reference": -0.354839, "from_low_reference": 1.857143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.011513, "fair_value_reference": 0.015249, "structural_low": 0.0075, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.13817, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.309859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.207547, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.219776, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.15493, "worst_return": -0.309524, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.338028, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.295329, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.047619, "worst_return": -0.433962, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.01225, "volume": 4738829, "typical_volume": 9528594.0, "trend": 0.010822, "fair_value": 0.015368, "relative_strength": 7.677231, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.388747, "energy": 33.540371, "activity_lines": [ 0.012983, 0.012823, 0.011518, 0.011176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.011, "volume": 3341254, "typical_volume": 9509314.45, "trend": 0.010913, "fair_value": 0.015291, "relative_strength": -4.316005, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.220142, "energy": 16.573315, "activity_lines": [ 0.012167, 0.012614, 0.011536, 0.011187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.02, "volume": 147612422, "typical_volume": 16527122.5, "trend": 0.011197, "fair_value": 0.015269, "relative_strength": 69.612852, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.184698, "energy": 39.439367, "activity_lines": [ 0.014617, 0.014009, 0.012414, 0.011773 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.02, "volume": 55609184, "typical_volume": 18729811.4, "trend": 0.011513, "fair_value": 0.015249, "relative_strength": 66.763613, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.141364, "energy": 45.389383, "activity_lines": [ 0.016667, 0.015209, 0.013249, 0.012341 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }