{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82757b55-c181-42a6-b200-f5c5486f64ac", "symbol": "LOIL", "name": "WisdomTree WTI Crude Oil 2x Daily Leveraged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.821, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.777, "architecture_energy": 20.242, "architecture_maturity": 28.278, "architecture_confidence": 64.521, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.49, "rotation_up": 49.97, "upward_expansion": 60.21, "deceleration": 67.74, "rotation_down": 15.96, "downward_expansion": 19.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.796, 15.942691, 17.102076, 17.017996 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.412, "trend_reference": 15.757, "distance_from_trend": -0.021895, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.456679, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.345241, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.197618, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.759562, "excess_performance": 0.58867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021895, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.221044, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.345241, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.467513, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.081976, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.608913, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.759562, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.627433, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1437554, "relative_activity": 1.268155, "balance": 0.627433, "dry_up": 0.912318, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.200648, "annualized_volatility": 1.167986, "from_high_reference": -0.390107, "from_low_reference": 1.360184 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.757, "fair_value_reference": 11.456679, "structural_low": 8.2, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010375, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.009538, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.168077, "worst_return": -0.149026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.05565, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.138632, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.192287, "worst_return": -0.222353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.105395, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.192643, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.035394, "worst_return": -0.301635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.049371, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.246195, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.866568, "worst_return": -0.420699, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.168077, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.11145, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011582, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.147914, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.272201, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.324456, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.154214, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048783, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169102, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 13.416, "volume": 988529, "typical_volume": 1856418.95, "trend": 14.42, "fair_value": 11.310013, "relative_strength": -0.733399, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.062813, "energy": 48.924432, "activity_lines": [ 13.503067, 15.705564, 17.395748, 16.428133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.85, "volume": 705672, "typical_volume": 1754897.1, "trend": 14.7509, "fair_value": 11.351718, "relative_strength": 25.504846, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.196449, "energy": 41.853367, "activity_lines": [ 14.3716, 15.595636, 17.323552, 16.584908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.011999, "volume": 938646, "typical_volume": 1498922.75, "trend": 15.142033, "fair_value": 11.400782, "relative_strength": 40.2775, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.830205, "energy": 17.233148, "activity_lines": [ 16.0112, 15.930327, 17.422305, 16.859817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.681999, "volume": 1054868, "typical_volume": 1236515.55, "trend": 15.5002, "fair_value": 11.43709, "relative_strength": 28.574966, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.988126, "energy": 18.290715, "activity_lines": [ 16.953866, 16.099709, 17.366362, 17.023686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.412, "volume": 1437554, "typical_volume": 1133579.05, "trend": 15.757, "fair_value": 11.456679, "relative_strength": 8.197618, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.776899, "energy": 20.242191, "activity_lines": [ 16.796, 15.942691, 17.102076, 17.017996 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }