{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8276cc0e-9f43-49b3-b73a-2e5087f6d95e", "symbol": "NOD", "name": "Nordic Semiconductor ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.844, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.183, "architecture_energy": 56.63, "architecture_maturity": 2.882, "architecture_confidence": 76.33, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.46, "rotation_up": 14.2, "upward_expansion": 27.26, "deceleration": 50.07, "rotation_down": 68.16, "downward_expansion": 54.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 161.286664, 167.65818, 177.426666, 174.028171 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 164.699997, "trend_reference": 166.536666, "distance_from_trend": -0.011029, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 131.669552, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.250859, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.117984, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.061211, "excess_performance": -0.063782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011029, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087598, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.250859, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.310485, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07118, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061211, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.804153, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8276957, "relative_activity": 2.721164, "balance": 0.804153, "dry_up": 1.574223, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076923, "annualized_volatility": 0.339208, "from_high_reference": -0.219431, "from_low_reference": 0.331447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 166.536666, "fair_value_reference": 131.669552, "structural_low": 132.300003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.032333, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.007793, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.040157, "worst_return": -0.032042, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.09797, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.000252, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128131, "worst_return": 0.067809, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.285355, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.178364, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.493294, "worst_return": 0.077417, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.553411, "energy": 21.267395, "activity_lines": [ 177.826665, 185.183636, 183.708571, 175.090107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 159.800003, "volume": 2933546, "typical_volume": 3233752.9, "trend": 164.003334, "fair_value": 131.377885, "relative_strength": -7.10092, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -15.921079, "energy": 30.611457, "activity_lines": [ 170.826666, 179.538182, 182.203333, 174.886667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 158.399994, "volume": 3112637, "typical_volume": 3069791.55, "trend": 164.953334, "fair_value": 131.436859, "relative_strength": -10.106197, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -16.386245, "energy": 34.953567, "activity_lines": [ 165.193331, 174.356362, 180.48619, 174.525161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 158.199997, "volume": 4830100, "typical_volume": 3099727.15, "trend": 165.65, "fair_value": 131.517308, "relative_strength": -10.504028, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.910998, "energy": 54.049233, "activity_lines": [ 161.506664, 169.967271, 178.669047, 174.089462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 164.699997, "volume": 8276957, "typical_volume": 3041697.45, "trend": 166.536666, "fair_value": 131.669552, "relative_strength": -7.117984, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.182688, "energy": 56.629834, "activity_lines": [ 161.286664, 167.65818, 177.426666, 174.028171 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }