{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8276f090-297c-4ada-9b95-d299f038056c", "symbol": "300856", "name": "Nanjing COSMOS Chemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.746, "architecture_energy": 43.47, "architecture_maturity": 59.531, "architecture_confidence": 81.684, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.45, "rotation_up": 25.01, "upward_expansion": 6.67, "deceleration": 60.4, "rotation_down": 43.93, "downward_expansion": 75.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.797333, 10.830394, 11.575662, 12.036959 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.93, "trend_reference": 12.637723, "distance_from_trend": -0.135129, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.317472, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.531253, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.385127, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.203353, "excess_performance": -0.210753, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135129, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08651, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.531253, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0866, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213851, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021996, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203353, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.710499, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21031406, "relative_activity": 1.008243, "balance": 0.710499, "dry_up": 1.076778, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09269, "annualized_volatility": 0.367759, "from_high_reference": -0.352488, "from_low_reference": 0.087562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.637723, "fair_value_reference": 23.317472, "structural_low": 10.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.000403, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008217, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.253084, "worst_return": -0.281157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.10557, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.126595, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.430039, "worst_return": -0.251531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.112694, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.324606, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.893008, "worst_return": -0.385962, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.465657, "energy": 85.576754, "activity_lines": [ 10.804422, 11.432717, 12.195552, 12.586006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.76, "volume": 25097891, "typical_volume": 22047130.45, "trend": 12.968056, "fair_value": 23.841287, "relative_strength": -21.944433, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.314593, "energy": 68.174876, "activity_lines": [ 10.722667, 11.187264, 12.016639, 12.43411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.27, "volume": 19508367, "typical_volume": 21745047.35, "trend": 12.805056, "fair_value": 23.659493, "relative_strength": -24.974086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.708244, "energy": 61.446225, "activity_lines": [ 10.558667, 10.912964, 11.807345, 12.260042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.14, "volume": 24206422, "typical_volume": 21841028.05, "trend": 12.722723, "fair_value": 23.484934, "relative_strength": -16.544673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.73045, "energy": 50.931416, "activity_lines": [ 10.736, 10.868169, 11.696004, 12.152619 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.93, "volume": 21031406, "typical_volume": 20859464.85, "trend": 12.637723, "fair_value": 23.317472, "relative_strength": -21.385127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.745955, "energy": 43.470327, "activity_lines": [ 10.797333, 10.830394, 11.575662, 12.036959 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }