{ "ticker": { "uuid": "827bbc1f-419a-419f-a435-5e11bcef3a46", "symbol": "WTEC", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.848, "architecture_energy": 41.675, "architecture_maturity": 73.225, "architecture_confidence": 91.731, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.12, "rotation_up": 39.36, "upward_expansion": 60.67, "deceleration": 88.26, "rotation_down": 27.42, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 227.869998, 227.915817, 224.162569, 215.153267 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 237.009995, "trend_reference": 204.118999, "distance_from_trend": 0.161136, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 162.080641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.462297, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.097981, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.315188, "excess_performance": 0.144296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.161136, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070326, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.462297, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051551, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04098, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007961, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.315188, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.597713, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5099, "relative_activity": 0.777785, "balance": 3.597713, "dry_up": 0.616668, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041936, "annualized_volatility": 0.241093, "from_high_reference": -0.000548, "from_low_reference": 0.407506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 204.118999, "fair_value_reference": 162.080641, "structural_low": 168.389999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002445, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018526, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.101001, "worst_return": -0.028881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.088741, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173012, "worst_return": -0.07669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.196325, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.071704, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.292305, "worst_return": 0.024413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181176, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025849, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061947, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071631, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071298, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": 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"up", "direction": 63.445782, "energy": 62.198309, "activity_lines": [ 228.888, 227.794362, 214.957951, 206.374515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 231.649994, "volume": 11246, "typical_volume": 8042.3, "trend": 199.001999, "fair_value": 159.097629, "relative_strength": 4.038255, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.232793, "energy": 62.851915, "activity_lines": [ 229.659331, 229.157452, 217.64576, 208.577224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 222.449997, "volume": 2534, "typical_volume": 7913.5, "trend": 200.206666, "fair_value": 159.809744, "relative_strength": 1.296617, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.049594, "energy": 47.741397, "activity_lines": [ 227.297331, 228.267452, 219.216712, 210.089998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 226.309998, "volume": 2150, "typical_volume": 7770.9, "trend": 201.476999, "fair_value": 160.535449, "relative_strength": 3.132127, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.151244, "energy": 44.682911, "activity_lines": [ 226.543997, 227.937998, 220.946236, 211.774084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 219.380005, "volume": 6388, "typical_volume": 6607.95, "trend": 202.535666, "fair_value": 161.239167, "relative_strength": -0.704187, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.066654, "energy": 32.767663, "activity_lines": [ 224.089333, 226.266726, 221.807379, 212.929117 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 237.009995, "volume": 5099, "typical_volume": 6555.8, "trend": 204.118999, "fair_value": 162.080641, "relative_strength": 4.097981, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.847851, "energy": 41.675216, "activity_lines": [ 227.869998, 227.915817, 224.162569, 215.153267 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }