{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "827daa20-089c-4c2d-b207-1fa6afff4e4b",
    "symbol": "2090",
    "name": "National Gypsum Company",
    "exchange": "SAU",
    "country": "SA",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^TASI.SR",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 95.219,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -47.461,
    "architecture_energy": 31.843,
    "architecture_maturity": 77.982,
    "architecture_confidence": 95.168,
    "architecture_tenure": "Extended",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 38.81,
        "rotation_up": 20.51,
        "upward_expansion": 6.33,
        "deceleration": 43.56,
        "rotation_down": 47.94,
        "downward_expansion": 75.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        14.058667,
        14.126364,
        14.204714,
        14.308194
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 14.17,
    "trend_reference": 14.53,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.024776,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 20.700449,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.315474,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -10.933113,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.052174,
    "excess_performance": -0.020344,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.024776,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.056432,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.315474,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000539,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.109331,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054496,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.052174,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.444783,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 542157,
      "relative_activity": 1.003041,
      "balance": 0.444783,
      "dry_up": 0.6643,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.041692,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.195751,
      "from_high_reference": -0.352968,
      "from_low_reference": 0.09
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 14.53,
      "fair_value_reference": 20.700449,
      "structural_low": 13.0,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 40,
        "median_return": -0.027795,
        "positive_rate": 0.475,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.525,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014818,
        "regime_survival": 0.85,
        "best_return": 0.156796,
        "worst_return": -0.295606,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": -0.040026,
        "positive_rate": 0.285714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.03642,
        "regime_survival": 0.642857,
        "best_return": 0.200855,
        "worst_return": -0.352693,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.094203,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003629,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.358595,
        "worst_return": -0.520879,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.184254,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.127738,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.04025,
        "worst_return": -0.513039,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-10-13",
        "end": "2023-12-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.058226,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-01-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.026655,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.070833,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-05-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.017308,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-06-28",
        "tenure": "New",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2024-08-16",
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        "return": 0.013652,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.075021,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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        "relative_strength": -12.51526,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 366100,
        "typical_volume": 523736.45,
        "trend": 14.638,
        "fair_value": 20.947821,
        "relative_strength": -12.897675,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -39.121921,
        "energy": 17.539183,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.242667,
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          14.306095,
          14.422
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 14.01,
        "volume": 317887,
        "typical_volume": 515673.5,
        "trend": 14.62,
        "fair_value": 20.8575,
        "relative_strength": -13.053412,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.085939,
        "energy": 18.418636,
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          14.174,
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          14.381484
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 13.88,
        "volume": 210108,
        "typical_volume": 517800.8,
        "trend": 14.566,
        "fair_value": 20.776923,
        "relative_strength": -11.403029,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -56.828636,
        "energy": 33.637423,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.064,
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          14.222952,
          14.333742
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 14.17,
        "volume": 542157,
        "typical_volume": 540513.05,
        "trend": 14.53,
        "fair_value": 20.700449,
        "relative_strength": -10.933113,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -47.461373,
        "energy": 31.84329,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.058667,
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          14.204714,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}