{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82826939-d7ca-4245-a9fa-c0a301183f25", "symbol": "ERMA", "name": "Enorama Pharma AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.247, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.018, "architecture_energy": 34.114, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.798, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.88, "rotation_up": 27.66, "upward_expansion": 15.79, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 38.82, "downward_expansion": 65.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.310667, 0.302764, 0.314057, 0.370609 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.339, "trend_reference": 0.542933, "distance_from_trend": -0.375614, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.810277, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.879371, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -79.251325, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.647609, "excess_performance": -0.709104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.375614, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.56014, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.879371, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03466, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.792513, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088612, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.647609, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.483627, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 96311, "relative_activity": 0.839026, "balance": 2.483627, "dry_up": 0.441612, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.20649, "annualized_volatility": 1.319003, "from_high_reference": -0.887, "from_low_reference": 0.606635 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.542933, "fair_value_reference": 2.810277, "structural_low": 0.211, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.023749, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": -0.069084, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 1.384181, "worst_return": -0.515748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.076233, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.090588, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 1.751678, "worst_return": -0.788413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.177667, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.20437, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.604255, "worst_return": -0.850882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003759, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1341, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.26572, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.083086, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.185484, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008772, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.829219, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.5, "volume": 18358, "typical_volume": 73767.15, "trend": 5.105333, "fair_value": 19.319744, "relative_strength": -41.526539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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"energy": 58.16305, "activity_lines": [ 0.2868, 0.301873, 0.31611, 0.409389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.3, "volume": 5690, "typical_volume": 186311.3, "trend": 0.591967, "fair_value": 2.832591, "relative_strength": -81.999977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.690333, "energy": 51.057906, "activity_lines": [ 0.293733, 0.297436, 0.312871, 0.386929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.339, "volume": 96311, "typical_volume": 114789.05, "trend": 0.542933, "fair_value": 2.810277, "relative_strength": -79.251325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.017605, "energy": 34.114303, "activity_lines": [ 0.310667, 0.302764, 0.314057, 0.370609 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }