{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82848522-3d4b-45b4-a835-53680b7d2234", "symbol": "605128", "name": "Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.968, "architecture_energy": 37.991, "architecture_maturity": 20.813, "architecture_confidence": 75.748, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.62, "rotation_up": 10.45, "upward_expansion": 4.03, "deceleration": 46.47, "rotation_down": 60.09, "downward_expansion": 75.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.108666, 22.724727, 22.947154, 23.105192 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.799999, "trend_reference": 23.631021, "distance_from_trend": -0.035167, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.453051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235568, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.255862, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.119, "excess_performance": -0.075796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035167, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235568, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084231, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072559, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046358, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.119, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.270332, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18822842, "relative_activity": 1.052421, "balance": 1.270332, "dry_up": 1.040395, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100126, "annualized_volatility": 0.40418, "from_high_reference": -0.267928, "from_low_reference": 0.19685 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.631021, "fair_value_reference": 18.453051, "structural_low": 19.049999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.008148, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019862, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.264036, "worst_return": -0.20794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.085608, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.116359, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.345566, "worst_return": -0.34213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.202178, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.130875, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.613827, "worst_return": -0.23298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027376, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007311, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.264036, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072771, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121842, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", 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"typical_volume": 17375009.55, "trend": 23.742363, "fair_value": 18.316409, "relative_strength": -16.718642, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.160896, "energy": 50.259185, "activity_lines": [ 21.833333, 22.795582, 22.941771, 23.21023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.0, "volume": 25131870, "typical_volume": 17992141.0, "trend": 23.685716, "fair_value": 18.386438, "relative_strength": -3.97059, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.710677, "energy": 36.500124, "activity_lines": [ 21.958667, 22.77143, 22.953492, 23.162335 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 18822842, "typical_volume": 17885279.25, "trend": 23.631021, "fair_value": 18.453051, "relative_strength": -7.255862, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.967999, "energy": 37.991046, "activity_lines": [ 22.108666, 22.724727, 22.947154, 23.105192 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }