{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8287724d-61a3-47f8-8fd8-74489f0e3764", "symbol": "RYN", "name": "Rayonier Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 93.281, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.004, "architecture_energy": 22.164, "architecture_maturity": 8.453, "architecture_confidence": 43.933, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.02, "rotation_up": 49.01, "upward_expansion": 48.17, "deceleration": 36.11, "rotation_down": 24.53, "downward_expansion": 8.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.712, 21.615257, 21.248801, 21.121494 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.79, "trend_reference": 21.259482, "distance_from_trend": 0.024954, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.885322, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.087724, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.968993, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.005465, "excess_performance": -0.13109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024954, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001188, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.087724, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078484, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11969, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074971, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005465, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.885544, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19564737, "relative_activity": 1.63439, "balance": 1.885544, "dry_up": 1.106065, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052198, "annualized_volatility": 0.220268, "from_high_reference": -0.151891, "from_low_reference": 0.131643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.259482, "fair_value_reference": 23.885322, "structural_low": 19.255181, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.007922, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.007695, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.085746, "worst_return": -0.107143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.012383, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038595, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.198897, "worst_return": -0.170827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02614, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.13893, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.199352, "worst_return": -0.178518, 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20.987806, 21.036284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.58, "volume": 10499266, "typical_volume": 12397868.1, "trend": 21.27235, "fair_value": 23.93619, "relative_strength": -9.704798, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.673335, "energy": 20.285263, "activity_lines": [ 21.586667, 21.438491, 21.066884, 21.056849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.78, "volume": 11010767, "typical_volume": 12012572.0, "trend": 21.295665, "fair_value": 23.909351, "relative_strength": -9.49934, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.808983, "energy": 21.328127, "activity_lines": [ 21.643333, 21.541104, 21.162353, 21.089601 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.79, "volume": 19564737, "typical_volume": 11970664.4, "trend": 21.259482, "fair_value": 23.885322, "relative_strength": -11.968993, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.003626, "energy": 22.164007, "activity_lines": [ 21.712, 21.615257, 21.248801, 21.121494 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }