{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82877c1f-17ba-4a86-8fc1-03c36aa4eb5e", "symbol": "CORPSI", "name": "Ubs Etf - Bloomberg Barclays Msci Global Liquid Corporates Sustainable Ucits ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 68.197, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.462, "architecture_energy": 63.815, "architecture_maturity": 4.433, "architecture_confidence": 85.644, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.27, "rotation_up": 11.99, "upward_expansion": 16.57, "deceleration": 34.43, "rotation_down": 68.6, "downward_expansion": 87.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.2237, 13.270145, 13.305336, 13.317498 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.2745, "trend_reference": 13.346683, "distance_from_trend": -0.005408, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.496583, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.06225, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.212759, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013232, "excess_performance": -0.096115, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005408, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000453, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.06225, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027483, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083867, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013232, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.788245, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1503, "relative_activity": 0.163704, "balance": 0.788245, "dry_up": 0.327953, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007985, "annualized_volatility": 0.055068, "from_high_reference": -0.025761, "from_low_reference": 0.017476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.346683, "fair_value_reference": 12.496583, "structural_low": 13.0725, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.010092, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.004162, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.059387, "worst_return": -0.054909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008734, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01377, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.091272, "worst_return": -0.093574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.028793, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 2.4e-05, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.078667, "worst_return": -0.171898, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.106085, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.029883, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.145772, "worst_return": -0.180486, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009309, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021354, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028365, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014242, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000165, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01853, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004956, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.049231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": 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"fair_value": 12.472542, "relative_strength": -10.335015, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.924735, "energy": 58.444754, "activity_lines": [ 13.2577, 13.303473, 13.320764, 13.333606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.182, "volume": 1456, "typical_volume": 9152.1, "trend": 13.349333, "fair_value": 12.484212, "relative_strength": -9.925256, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.14673, "energy": 68.919613, "activity_lines": [ 13.219267, 13.277818, 13.308626, 13.322326 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.2745, "volume": 1503, "typical_volume": 9181.2, "trend": 13.346683, "fair_value": 12.496583, "relative_strength": -10.212759, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.462191, "energy": 63.814821, "activity_lines": [ 13.2237, 13.270145, 13.305336, 13.317498 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }