{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82a17f2a-f615-4b40-a950-134643659f27", "symbol": "002163", "name": "Hainan Development HoldingsNanhai Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.412, "architecture_energy": 66.514, "architecture_maturity": 86.219, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 28.11, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.38, "rotation_down": 57.11, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.865333, 8.112545, 9.216667, 10.355484 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.26, "trend_reference": 12.177667, "distance_from_trend": -0.321709, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.716154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149869, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.384499, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.501809, "excess_performance": -0.509209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.321709, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181297, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149869, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.442521, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.363845, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19655, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.501809, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.267029, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108952436, "relative_activity": 1.015173, "balance": 0.267029, "dry_up": 1.298256, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101322, "annualized_volatility": 0.354474, "from_high_reference": -0.669996, "from_low_reference": 0.185079 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.177667, "fair_value_reference": 9.716154, "structural_low": 6.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.027264, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005846, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.287972, "worst_return": -0.224233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.05868, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.029446, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.851419, "worst_return": -0.350118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.048098, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037648, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.928696, "worst_return": -0.357542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.26, "volume": 135205218, "typical_volume": 110741745.0, "trend": 13.19, "fair_value": 9.741474, "relative_strength": -42.861236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.410509, "energy": 77.255174, "activity_lines": [ 7.761333, 8.360182, 9.699429, 10.979161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.96, "volume": 136313084, "typical_volume": 111203001.95, "trend": 12.697, "fair_value": 9.728462, "relative_strength": -35.859387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.198338, "energy": 67.975339, "activity_lines": [ 7.747333, 8.181455, 9.430333, 10.641742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.26, "volume": 108952436, "typical_volume": 107323957.25, "trend": 12.177667, "fair_value": 9.716154, "relative_strength": -36.384499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.411746, "energy": 66.51366, "activity_lines": [ 7.865333, 8.112545, 9.216667, 10.355484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }